The presumptive, or the actual, nominee?

[Shemp Howard]

Being a "presumptive" nominee really does mean something. But it does not mean as much as some people want it to mean. Consider a horse race, a race where one horse is ahead by a good margin at the 3/4 point. Should that horse therefore be the race's winner? Should the race then be stopped, and a winner be declared?

No, of course not. The race should continue until all horses have crossed the finish line. Yet many people want the Democrat nominating process to be over before the finish line...before the convention, before any delegate has cast a single vote.

And yes, I must include the DU administration in this criticism. They have the right to set whatever rules they want. It is their site. But to shut down debate before the actual convention is, IMHO, wrong.

[AzDar]

1. K & R

[beachbumbob]

2. Well in 40 years of democratic primaries the winner is proclaimed when they

Reached the magic number after the primary win that puts them over...which btw includes committed super delegates

So Tuesday we have our winner and Bernie can go back to Vermont

[Shemp Howard]

12. It depends on what the "magic number" is.

If that magic number includes pledged delegates only, then, yes, you are right. If someone can claim a majority using pledged delegates only, then the primary is effectively over, and a nominee can be declared.

But if the magic number includes superdelegates, then that magic number means nothing. Because, as we all know, a superdelegate can change his/her vote one second before the roll is called.

It's a garbage system, that's for sure.

[Garrett78]

20. A pledged delegate can change his/her vote, as well.

So, if 2383 via pledged delegates alone is sufficient, then 2383 via a combination of pledged delegates and superdelegates is sufficient.

[Shemp Howard]

23. That's not a very good argument there.

If a pledged delegate changes his/her vote on the first ballot, there had better be a very, very good reason for it.

But a superdelegate can change his/her vote based on literally anything, or on nothing at all. A pledged delegate is simply NOT equivalent of a superdelegate. Pledged delegates represent the will of the people. Superdelegates represent the will of the establishment.

As I said before, it's a garbage system.

[Garrett78]

24. Pledged delegates aren't bound, contrary to what some mistakenly believe.

No, they aren't the same as superdelegates, but they are free to switch. Anyway, geek tragedy's analogy is much more apt than the one you present in the OP.

[thesquanderer]

32. Hillary seems to think it's good that even pledged delegates can switch

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512105004

I wonder if she would think the same if asked about it today... I have a feeling this would be something else she has evolved on...

[geek tragedy]

3. Presumptive nominee is like someone being the President-elect.

They won, but the official ceremony and sign-offs haven't happened yet.

In the case of the presumptive nominee, it's the convention, in the case of the president-elect, it's the meeting of the electoral college and inauguration.

[Garrett78]

8. That's a much more apt analogy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Congress doesn't certify the Electoral College Electors until 1/6

Technically that is when the election is decided but a person would like an ass hat if he argued we won't know who the president is after the popular vote on 11/8.

[Garrett78]

21. Yep. The other problem is the inconsistency inherent in the "SDs can switch" argument.

The argument goes, "We don't know for sure that Clinton will be the nominee because the SDs can switch. But the matter would be settled if she was at 2383 (or 2382 or whatever) via pledged delegates alone."

Well, since pledged delegates can also switch, that argument indicates that 2383 is 2383 (regardless of how they're accumulated).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Electoral College Electors can flip.

Only twenty one states mandate they follow the popular vote. Out of respect for the popular will they rarely, rarely... rarely do...

[thesquanderer]

31. Maybe some will if Trump wins their state! (n/t)

[Renew Deal]

4. Last week AP found a bunch of republican super-delegates and named Trump the nominee

And the same will happen for Hillary June 7 around 9PM if not sooner (which could happen).

[B Calm]

6. Last week how many republican candidates were still in the race?

One, Donald Trump. The rest dropped out.

[Renew Deal]

7. AP still made the phone calls

They didn't have to for the same reason.

[B Calm]

9. LOL

[passiveporcupine]

28. AP is not the democratic party and it's not the voters

The media can say anything they want, they are not bound by party rules. They can call a 'presumptive' nominee based on current delegate counts and if the opposition drops out on that basis, then that candidate does indeed become the nominee. Even if the 'presumptive' nominee does not actually have enough pledged delegates to make them the nominee automatically. But if the opposition does not drop out because the 'presumptive' nominee has not actually met the required number of pledged delegates, then there is no winner until the convention. That is a fact, according to DNC rules and even if that has been ignored in the past, that doesn't make it right.

The DNC is saying the super delegates do not count until they vote at the convention and should not count until then.

I don't understand how so many here think they know the rules better than the DNC.

[B Calm]

5. Hell they been begging Skinner to call it since January. You are right presumptive is

not the winner. As long as Bernie is still in the race and fighting to win, I fully give him my support.

[Skink]

11. Some people bet on half a race

Some bet the back 9.

A better analogy is if a team peeked early or who has the momentum.

[oberliner]

13. How about this analogy

A football team is up by three touchdowns at the two minute warning.

[Skink]

14. That is not the case however

[oberliner]

15. Obviously not. It's an analogy.

Meaning barring some sort of fluke, the team with the big lead this late in the game is pretty much going to win.

[Skink]

16. This will be a photo finish

[Garrett78]

19. Meaning you think Sanders will come close to 2026 pledged delegates?

Regardless, the analogy in the OP doesn't fly. As was posted above, a presumed nominee is simply a nominee who hasn't yet been made official only because the convention hasn't yet occurred. Like how the person who is declared the winner in November doesn't officially become POTUS until the electoral college votes are submitted and the person is sworn into office in January.

[Shemp Howard]

17. "Pretty much" is not the same as "will'. nm

[oberliner]

18. Exactly

Certainly a team up three touchdowns could fumble, give up a TD, lose two onside kicks and then blow the game in OT.

Similarly, there are a series of very unlikely events that could lead to Hillary not being the nominee.

[beachbumbob]

25. 9pm June 7th Hillary will be proclaimed our nominee

And that will be that

JUNE 16...most the nonsense stop in DU....

[Ned_Devine]

27. ...

[Juicy_Bellows]

26. Wholeheartedly agree.

Kick.

[LWolf]

29. I'm not presuming anything at this point. nt

[Waiting For Everyman]

30. I agree.

I don't see what difference a little more time would have made. Especially this year, when a very big question mark hangs in the air. It would be much clearer to put the line after the SD vote at the convention. After a concession speech and an acceptance.

At best, this will create confusion where none need exist.

Oh well!