2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReminder, we won't have a nominee until the convention
Even then, it really isn't over until election day. If Clinton wins the nomination at the convention, Sanders can just keep running until election day. But wait, the electoral college doesn't vote until January 6th, 2017. Sanders could convince just 270 electors to switch their vote and back him for president instead. However, this really isn't over until Chief Justice swears in the new president. Sanders could convince the president elect to step aside and have the Chief Justice swear Sanders in instead. But actually, it isn't truly over until the new president moves into the White House. Sanders could convince the public to block all roads to the White House where the newly sworn in president is planning on traveling to get to the White House. Sanders could then slip in the back entrance and take over as the new Emperor of America.
See it isn't even close to being over. They want him to drop out almost a year before this thing is even close to being figured out. This is the height of ridiculousness! At least give him a chance! Give him another year to sort this out!
Skink
(10,122 posts)CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)e.g., Do we need more of THIS?
e.g., MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...
Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...
Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"
Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"
Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Everyday I hear "they charges are coming", "keep an eye out next week, this could be big", "the indictment it coming before xxxx event and it will clinch it for Sanders". And yet....crickets. We are essentially saying that the angels of heaven will come down any day now and intervene on Bernie's behalf, just you wait.
It sounds a lot like that tv cliche of "I haven't seen dad since he went out to buy cigarettes 8 years ago but I'm sure he'll be home any second now." I mean if we are really waiting on some phantom indictment and fringe right wing sources predicting its imminent arrival, it might be time to just give up the ghost on this campaign.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)beaglelover
(3,484 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2016, 08:37 AM - Edit history (1)
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sure, the media and nearly every person in the country will be referring to the November "winner" as President-Elect, but those electors won't actually meet until December 19. No doubt some of them...most of them...*all* of them will defy the the November results. You can take that to the piggy bank...you know, the one where the pigs fly.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)As long as their is a breath in my body and delusions in my brain, this thing isn't over.
dlwickham
(3,316 posts)MFM008
(19,808 posts)Said there has to be INTENT before you can indict. There will be no indictments.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)this has always been the case and yet General election season has always started in June.
There is nothing special about this year. We will know who both nominees are in June.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)The democrats find a few hundred superdelegates under the couch cushions after June 7th? Then this thing blows wide open again.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)...your slippery slope argument on the other hand...
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)But I have seen zero evidence that he is even going to have 1 or 2 switch from clinton to him, let alone hundreds. Unless he has some secret, foolproof plan to unleash the floodgates of endorsements and snatch the nomination from Clinton, after she reaches the magic number, his odds of somehow winning the nomination would probably be around 0.000000000000000001%. That just seems like a textbook definition of grandstanding at that point.
Skink
(10,122 posts)Clinton panic is setting in.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Here's a good video on the subject...from October.
And yet she is cruising to the nomination, ahead by millions of votes, hundreds of pledged delegates and nearly 800 delegates overall. If you say Clinton is in panic mode then I can't even fathom the pit of despair that Sanders must be in right now.
And who the fuck is "Chuck"? Chuck Todd? Why should I give two shits what that little wiener thinks?
Brickbat
(19,339 posts)Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)Because it's rigged. 😀
In fact I'm not even sure Bill Clinton was actually elected fairly.
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)When POTUS says its over, its over.
lmbradford
(517 posts)Bernie could still win big and end up with more pledged delegates, in which case Supers will switch. They did for Obama. The Supers will not want to thwart the will of the people. Long shot I know but still a mathmatical possibility. His whole campaign has been a long shot, so we will see.
Gothmog
(145,231 posts)You are ignoring history and want special rules just for Sanders. In every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. That fact that this is not favorable to Sandes does not matter http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved
?1464557557
The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.
Heres how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....
Summary
Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?
First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.
Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.
The major thing Ive learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Harts 36 percenteven then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.
When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there arent a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say youre the nominee.
Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.
The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the presumptive nominee) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had clinched the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, MichiganI hope were still not fighting this?).
This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)But all valid points against someone that actually believes the superdelegates don't matter this time around.
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)NanceGreggs
(27,814 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The news media is gonna call it for Hillary on the 7th before the polls close in California.
Eko
(7,289 posts)My wtf meter kept getting higher and higher and then I laughed. Still am. Great job.