California Voters Turning Out in Record Numbers
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Excitement over California’s June 7 primary is driven in part by a hotly contested race for Boxer’s Senate seat, after her decision to retire after 24 years in the Senate. Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) lead a field of two-dozen candidates that includes two prominent former state Republican Party chairmen, Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro. The top two finishers advance to a general election regardless of party affiliation; most expect Harris and Sanchez to face off in November.
At the top of the ticket, several factors are working in Clinton’s favor: Late tightening in public polls won’t help Sanders as much, observers say, because of California’s reliance on mail-in ballots cast before late-breaking developments. The race is also likely to be dominated by women — in 2008, 54 percent of the Democratic electorate was female; Clinton leads among women voters by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin, according to the PPIC poll.
And non-white voters are likely to make up nearly half the Democratic electorate; those voters have been much friendlier to Clinton than white voters, who have generally been better for Sanders. The PPIC poll shows Clinton leading by a 47 percent to 41 percent margin among white voters, but by a wider 52 percent to 43 percent margin among Hispanic voters, who make up a huge percentage of the electorate in Los Angeles. African American and Asian American voters are each likely to account for between 8 percent and 10 percent of the vote.
Complicating matters for Sanders, while independents can participate in the Democratic primary, they must specifically request a ballot that includes the Democratic presidential primary. About one in five voters in the 2008 Democratic primary were independents, a lower number than in many of the states where Sanders has performed best this year. Sanders supporters have sued to extend a deadline to register with the Democratic Party in order to vote in the presidential contest.
Data compiled by Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist who keeps close tabs on California’s absentee ballot returns, shows 85 percent of the ballots mailed to voters who were not registered with the Democratic Party did not include a presidential ballot test. That, Brokaw said, means thousands of Sanders supporters who did not opt in to the Democratic primary will not have the option to vote for their candidate, unless they make it to the polls in person next Tuesday.
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https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/31/california-voters-turning-record-numbers/
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