2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum6/7 Prediction thread?
I don't see any prediction threads yet, lets do it
Put your analytical skills and reputation on the line and post your best assessment of what you think the results will be tomorrow's primaries will be.
California
New Jersey
Montana
North Dakota
New Mexico
South Dakota
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)SD I think will be close.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Hillary is our nominee....and numbers from Tuesday don't mean anything
Reiyuki
(96 posts)It sucks when you live in the wrong state and the party decides to have your primary at the end.
Where do you live? Maybe next time your vote won't mean anything.
brooklynite
(94,517 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Reiyuki
(96 posts)How about every primary is held on the same day?
How about shuffling at random every season?
How about we go football with some 'wildcard states' to replace IA and NH every time?
SoCalNative
(4,613 posts)If national elections can take place on the same day, then so should ALL state/district primaries when federal offices are involved. And abolish the useless caucuses. Proper Primaries Elections or don't bother.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Bernie probably does well in those other low-population states.
George II
(67,782 posts)...Sanders "suspends" shortly after Obama endorses.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)CA, is a toss up. But after the polls close in NJ, it won't really matter, Hillary with 65% there. No way a Democrat wins ND or MT in November anyway.
msongs
(67,401 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)...making the rest, moot.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)Don't care about the rest after that.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)And some how, millions added to the H side.
BootinUp
(47,143 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)How mentally simplistic it must be. Sanders wins are righteous and pure, Clinton's win only through fraud and deception. How convenient that particular yet consistent irrationality must be to one's carefully-nurtured bias.
No doubt, creating your self-fulfilling prophecy this early leaves room for drinking later.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Is that it? Or do you just not want to admit she's the more popular candidate?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)What is wrong with you?
Everyone who is anyone, knows the voting machines are owned and controlled by the establishment. Bernie is not establishment, so he gets screwed.
Obama got screwed by about 7 million votes, the math showed.
I guess if one is blind to the fact that votes get stolen, then none of this makes any sense to them and all they are left with is personal attacks on the Truth tellers.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Everyone knows except you.
tandem5
(2,072 posts)and she will actually win California by +13.
Reiyuki
(96 posts)Polls varying wildly between +1 and +15.
*something* is obviously broke with polling if they are that far apart, maybe cellphone users or some subtle demographic shift or first-time voters?
I wonder where such a huge gap is coming from and which agencies are going to be off by >10pts tomorrow.
tandem5
(2,072 posts)It's easy to run astray with likely voter models in California when something closer to a basic registered voter sample has proven far more accurate over the years.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)They still get to vote, but many pollsters don't even bother surveying them because hiring translators is expensive. And there's a lot more such people in CA than in most states.
KULawHawk
(97 posts)polling for Sanders at least 68%, according to MSNBC this morning.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)CA - Clinton by 3 points.
NJ - Clinton by 16 points
MT - Sanders by 25
ND - Sanders by 25
NM - Clinton by 5
SD - Sanders by 20
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Sanity Claws
(21,847 posts)The sun will set in the evening.
It may or may not rain.
stone space
(6,498 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Clinton wins NM by 23, NJ by 19, CA by 6
Clinton also wins the endorsements of President Obama and Elizabeth Warren
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)NJ: Clinton
CA: no matter who wins it won't be decisive because republicans and future trump voters will have impacted the results and their will be many claims about election fraud and 'never going to vote for a democrat' participation in the primary
NM: Clinton
ND,SD,MT: Sanders cause Clinton is gonna take their guns