NPR: Campaign mystery -- Why Don't Bernie's Big Rallies Translate to Big Wins?

[pnwmom]

This hasn't been a mystery to me -- the Hillary supporters I know don't want to spend hours at a crowded, noisy campaign rally. That doesn't mean we're not enthused about Hillary or that we're not voting for her. But for those who are still wondering . . .

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/26/475681237/campaign-mystery-why-dont-bernie-sanders-big-rallies-lead-to-big-wins

(Howard) Dean offers a couple of theories about what causes the disconnect. For one thing, when he was campaigning in Iowa back in 2003, he started to notice the same faces from event to event. He thinks that is happening with Sanders.

"Some of the crowd size is people who come because they love Bernie and they want to hear this message and it invigorates them and they keep doing it and they follow him around just like [fans of] the Grateful Dead or Phish."

Dean says there's a deeper issue than numbers. Eventually the insurgent candidate needs to go from playing the role of agitating outsider to someone voters of all stripes can see as president.

"And I couldn't change. And I knew I had to. But the crowd pulls you back," says Dean. "They're dying for you. They're bleeding for you. And it's very hard to do."

Dean says he sees Republican Donald Trump publicly struggling with it. And he says Sanders likely is, too. A speech with applause lines all your supporters can recite back makes for an amazing rally.

"But it's also the thing that isolates you at the end, because you have to build a coalition," adds Dean.

Put another way: big crowds aren't the same thing as a winning coalition.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/07/us/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

But many realize that they may be seeing the last of Mr. Sanders on the campaign trail. Chuck Hollis, 69, of West Sacramento, who has attended three Sanders rallies in the past few weeks, said some friends had teased him for going to so many.

But he said that being part of the crowd “provides a great deal of satisfaction” and that he wanted to show his support for Mr. Sanders in “a very concrete way.”

SNIP

Angela Collins, 48, of El Paso, does not believe Mr. Sanders has a chance. She is a Clinton supporter, but she attended a rally last month in Vado, N.M., because, she said, she did not want to miss seeing the senator.

Ms. Collins stuffed her Clinton button in her pocket and waved a large Sanders sign the campaign handed out to be “respectful.”

[NCTraveler]

1. Simple answer that I have learned from Sanders supporters themselves.

The people at the rallies have yet to vote. They cannot be considered Sanders voters in any way at all. I believe that Clinton persuades them to vote for her from the time they go to Sanders rallies to the time they actually vote. Sanders supporters can in no way make the argument that people at his rallies are going to vote for him. They hadn't voted at all to that point. They have been ripe for the picking and Clinton targeted them.

The second argument would be that they went to his rally and didn't like what they heard. That is more likely.

[RandySF]

2. 27,000 is a drop in the bucket

In most NYC boroughs. Many CA cities, too.

[Skink]

3. Closed primaries

[tonyt53]

4. Why shouldn't a party alone pick their nominee? Bernie would have run as a socialist democrat.

[Skink]

9. one way to grow the party would be to open the doors

The party is not growing and it should not have a stranglehold on presidential elections.

[GummyBearz]

14. Why should citizens even get to pick the "party's nominee"

There should be some kind of inner circle that has full control over who the nominee is. You could call it something like the political bureau. Or maybe something with the word "super" in it. Then we would be assured we get the best nominee every time

[hack89]

15. Hillary won more open primaries than Bernie.

But you knew that.

[mythology]

24. Except Clinton has won twice as many open primaries

As Sanders. Sanders does well in low turnout caucuses.

[Larkspur]

5. Yet Bernie did much better than Howard Dean

and put unexpected pressure on HRC for most of the primary season, despite her advantages with the Establishment and name recognition.

The real question, is why wasn't HRC crowned the Dem nominee sooner than now? Why did Bernie win 21 contests? Why wasn't this race a cake walk for HRC, like she and her acolytes expected?

[pnwmom]

10. Why not sooner? Because we got rid of winner-take-all.

http://www.politico.com/story/2008/02/proportional-primaries-working-for-democrats-008698

The truth is, fairness required the elimination of winner-take-all and “bonus” primaries from Democratic Party elections after the 1988 race, because their effect was to artificially bias the process against the leading African-American candidate (due to the after-effects of gerrymandering and segregation). Just one glaring example: Had the Jackson ’88 campaign taken just 5 percent more of the vote away from Democratic rival Paul Simon in Illinois, it would have carried the state in popular votes while still getting crushed in delegates as a result of the “winner-take-all-by-district” system that existed. This is a key point, since it would hardly be a recipe for party harmony, were an African-American statewide vote winner to get crushed in delegates by huge margins.

[Larkspur]

12. Not a convincing reason

HRC struggled and will continue to struggle due to her own character issues.

Her biggest problem is enthusiasm and hoping Trump will scare more people to her than she can inspire is a poor plan. It's a Nixonian type plan.

[leftynyc]

20. Did you consider then

Senator Obama struggling when he lost California and NY in 2008?

[Larkspur]

30. I'm not an Obama fan

In 2008, I was an anyone but HRC voter and that's how Obama got my vote.

I never trusted Obama and was proven right when he tried to promote his Grand Bargain and failed to promote a public health acct withing the A.C.A.. He was more eager to sell out Social Security than fight for Democratic and Progressive values and policies.

[leftynyc]

33. That's not

what I asked you. I asked you if you felt the then Sen Obama campaign was struggling when he lost both NY and CA in 2008 like you're calling Hillary's campaign struggling for some unknown reason.

[Larkspur]

35. Obama did struggle to win the 2008 campaign

I remember the media and Party elites saying HRC should bow out because she is hurting Obama's choices. And she threw some "kitchen sinks", like saying that she is staying in the race in case Obama got assassinated, like RFK.

All the crap HRC supporters are throwing at Bernie this time is what was thrown at them in 2008.

All the crap about starting Party unity before the last primary vote is cast is a sign that the eventual winner sees herself as vulnerable in the GE. There is plenty of time to unite by the convention.

[leftynyc]

38. Except for the fact

that neither Hillary or anyone from her campaign has told Sanders to drop out before today. The hypocrisy of Bernie supporters knows no bounds.

[Larkspur]

40. HRC supporters are so naive

Like a queen, HRC does not have to do the dirty work herself. She's got a lot of acolytes and surrogates who are willing to throw the crap.

[leftynyc]

41. LOL

Yes - I know. She's all powerful, all knowing and has millions of minions at her beck and call. You, of course, have some kind of proof to offer up that she personally instructed......who?

[mythology]

25. Except Clinton supporters were found to be more enthusiastic

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/28/1507300/-Gallup-Clinton-Supporters-More-Enthusiastic-Than-Sanders-Supporters

[Larkspur]

36. That is just a poll of Democrats. That is not a poll for the General Election

HRC has a negative approval rating among national voters. She's lucky Trump's are worse.

[Fresh_Start]

6. Rally participants do not accurately reflect the voters

its obvious looking at the photos from the rallies

The average voter is in their 50s.
The average rallyer is << 50

I'm not saying that there aren't people of all ages at the rallies.
But that they are disproportionate compared to actual voters.
The over 45 age group has 20 million potential voters than the <45
and the over 45% are also 30+% more likely to vote.

[Orsino]

7. A new sort of message draws bigger crowds...

...than the sort one can hear on TV every day.

It did translate to votes, but Establishment voters gonna Establishment. Sanders is doing amazingly well with a new sort of strategy.

[HumanityExperiment]

8. HRC's attempt to marginalize the 'radical'...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/how-bernie-sanders-evolved-from-fringe-candidate-to-contender/

Principled candidate, there was only one, and that's Bernie

His history and this primary proves that out

Big crowds are just validation of appeal, his was much larger and that will factor into GE

he grew the tent, HRC didn't

[beachbum bob]

11. social media event for the age group that finds voting hard and inconvenient

is most of the issue, Can not depend on them

[geek tragedy]

13. big crowds are fool's gold for non-caucus elections. nt

[taught_me_patience]

16. Maybe they didn't like what they heard at the rally?

And chose to vote for Hillary instead.

[pnwmom]

17. And it is often a social event -- going to a rally with friends,

whether or not you are committed to the candidate yet.

Voting isn't often a social event, but attending a several hour rally often is.

[ecstatic]

18. People go to the rallies and are turned off by what they hear

from Sanders, his surrogates, and the crowd.

[grossproffit]

19. Voting booths aren't allowed at rallies?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

21. Young people rally more often than old people, old people vote more often than young people.

So obviously Clinton will get far more voters per rally attender than Sanders.

[MoonRiver]

22. A lot are curiosity seekers, or people looking for a place to party.

Their agenda has nothing to do with voting.

[arely staircase]

23. I know lots of Clinton supporters who have been in those crowds. nt

[Agschmid]

31. I've been to quite a few Sanders rallies, they are sort of a social event for me.

[Gomez163]

26. The same 20,000 go to every rally. FREE MUMIA!!!!!!!!!!!

[arely staircase]

32. With the purchase of 2 Mumia at regular price.

Gotta read the fine print.

[MyNameGoesHere]

27. It's because yard signs, bumper stickers, and shiney hashtags

don't vote.

[Retrograde]

28. Novelty

Now you folks out in Iowa and New Hampshire and maybe some of the other early primary states may complain about tripping over candidates every 4 years, but out here in California we rarely get to see them unless we want to cough up some (usually big) bucks. So when the circus comes to town for free some of us go - even if we're not planning on voting for that candidate. Many - most - the attendees at Sanders' rallies were his likely supporters, but there were some Clinton-backers that went for the experience.

[MFM008]

29. I've been to 1 rally

In my life
Seattle
1992
Bill Clinton.

[k8conant]

34. A lot of the voters were sitting at home

with their mail-in ballots that they decided how to fill out in January 2015????

[Larkspur]

37. The purpose of rallies is to create PR

and for an insurgent candidate, like Bernie, who had little national recognition, it was critical to hold those rallies. If he did not have them, then he would have done much worse. He won 21 states, so those rallies did help him. He just started in a deeper PR and name recognition hole that HRC.

HRC basically rode on Bill's old coattails. If she was not married to Bill, she would not have had the Dem Establishment behind her.

[GreatGazoo]

39. Since it can't possibly be any kind of voter purges, voter suppression, media advocacy or

the superdelegates then it is indeed a mystery.

And the wisdom of "Spinal Tap" teaches that "some mysteries are best left unsolved."