FiveThirtyEight - It’s Almost Over: A Guide To The Final Primaries

[brooklynite]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-almost-over-a-guide-to-the-final-primaries/

New Jersey primary

Polls close: 8 p.m. EDT
126 delegates at stake
Open to independent3 voters

Surprisingly little ink has been spilled over the state with the ninth-largest delegate prize of all the caucuses and primaries in the nomination process. That’s because California is hogging much of the spotlight, but also because New Jersey just hasn’t been that competitive. Clinton has won the states surrounding New Jersey by no less than 12 percentage points. She leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in New Jersey by 27 percentage points.

New Mexico primary

Polls close: 9 p.m. EDT
34 delegates at stake
Closed to independent voters

If Clinton does well with Latinos (as we expect her to), then she’s going to do very well in New Mexico, though few delegates are at stake. Thirty-five percent of Democratic primary voters in the state were Latino in 2008, which was higher than in any other contest outside Puerto Rico. Indeed, the only state that came close was neighboring Texas, at 32 percent. Clinton cruised in Texas this year in part because she won Latino voters by 42 percentage points. She’s also likely to benefit from New Mexico’s closed primary, which does not allow independents to participate.

North Dakota caucuses

Doors close: 9 p.m. EDT
18 delegates at stake
Open to independent voters

You can’t draw up a better state for Sanders than this one. Just 5 percent of the state’s population is black or Latino; it’s not a primary but a caucus, where Sanders does quite well; and to top it off, independent voters are allowed to participate. The only real question is the margin of Sanders’s victory.

South Dakota primary

Polls close: 9 p.m. EDT
20 delegates at stake
Open to independent voters

Another state with few black and Latino voters that allows independents to participate in the contest? Check. The only big demographic difference between the Dakotas is that South Dakota is 9 percent American Indian, compared with 5 percent in North Dakota. These states could give us some insight into which candidate American Indians prefer in the Democratic primary.

California primary

Polls close: 11 p.m. EDT
475 delegates at stake
Open to independent voters

For all the attention lavished on California, Clinton can clinch a majority of pledged delegates even with a poor performance in the state. If these predicted delegate allocations for the other five states are correct, Clinton will require only 102 of California’s 475 delegates to win an overall majority. Because delegates are allocated proportionally in Democratic primaries, Clinton will likely hit this number if she gets at least 21.5 percent of the California vote. That shouldn’t be a problem. Clinton has led in every poll in the state, and she leads by 5 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. And Nate’s demographic model has Clinton favored by 9.4 percentage points in California. In other words, Clinton is going to get her pledged delegate majority in California, unless something truly unforeseen happens.

[arely staircase]

1. 27 point lead in NJ? Holy shit. Jersey not feeling any Bern at all

That is an ass kickin deluxe.

[BootinUp]

2. Yes, very interesting. nt

[geek tragedy]

4. it will be more like 15 points imo, the demographics aren't that different than NY nt

[Maru Kitteh]

6. That would be remarkable, I suspect it will be less than that but still

quite impressive.

[Sancho]

3. It won't matter much, but some in ND don't like Bernie's ban on fracking...

as opposed to a planned move from fossil fuels to alternative energy. If a lot of voters or union folks think Hillary is preferred, she might get a couple delegates unexpectedly.

Some Native American groups have endorsed Hillary.

Hillary will likely get 250+ in CA, 75 in NJ, 15+ between ND/SD, and 20+ in NM. She will get about 400+ at a minimum before DC.

In fact, Hillary will be almost able to reach 2,383 without the SDs. She will be about 150 short, but by then she will have more SDs committed. Washington, DC will give her 30-40 more pledged delegates. It's not out of the picture for Hillary to get within a handful of 2383 with pledged delegates alone.

Honestly, a "contested" convention is a joke. Her total will be 500+ more delegates than needed to be nominated.

I should add, that at this writing there are about 125 SDs left who have not committed.

[TwilightZone]

5. "Clinton is going to get her pledged delegate majority in California"

While I would hope that would tone down the nonsense, I'm not holding my breath.