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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her - Nate Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/Its an emblematically annoying ending to the Democratic campaign, one that reflects both the acrimony between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and the fact that Clinton, in the end, is winning her partys nomination by every available measure.
At 8:20 p.m. EDT on Monday night, The Associated Press declared Clinton to be the presumptive Democratic nominee based on her having accumulated 1,812 elected (pledged) delegates and 571 superdelegates, for 2,383 total delegates, exactly the number needed to win the nomination. In the overwhelming likelihood that Clintons nomination is confirmed at the Democratic convention in Philadelphia next month, she will officially become the first woman nominated for president by a major American political party.
In a statement released after the APs call, the Sanders campaign argued that the media is wrong to declare Clinton the presumptive nominee by including superdelegates, correctly pointing out that superdelegates can change their vote up until the convention, as several dozen superdelegates did in flipping from Clinton to Barack Obama in 2008. FiveThirtyEights pledged delegate count, which does not include superdelegates, has Clinton with 1,8111 pledged delegates to 1,526 for Sanders. The Sanders campaign said its job from now until the convention is to convince superdelegates that Bernie is by far the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.
But Sanderss statement and the APs call distract from the larger point. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee because substantially more Democrats have voted for her. In addition to her elected delegate majority, shes received approximately 13.5 million votes so far in primaries and caucuses, compared with 10.5 million for Sanders.
(more)
13.5/10.5 = 1.29... She tops his vote total by ~29%. Pretty good margin.
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Hillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her - Nate Silver (Original Post)
Bill USA
Jun 2016
OP
Gomez163
(2,039 posts)1. CORRUPT!!!! A FIX!!!!! ITS A CONSPIRACY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)2. villagers, grab your torches!