If Hillary got 80% of the votes that are left

[pinebox]

There'd still be a contested convention.

[LexVegas]

1. "a contested convention"

[pinebox]

3. Hillary.....

.....the most famous woman in the world still can't shake of a political unknown who a year ago was known by 2% of the American public?

[Zynx]

9. She beat him by almost 4 million votes.

Bernie is only "in" this because he refuses to accept reality.

[pinebox]

16. In a bubble, yes BUT

Remember, polls show Hillary losing to Trump in a GE. This is a huge issue.

[LanternWaste]

51. We often pretend the prophecies we tell ourselves are huge issues.

We often pretend the prophecies we tell ourselves are huge issues, and just as quickly dismiss the objective, peer-reviewed evidence that doesn't support our self-validating pretense and biases.

Hue issue, indeed.

[LoverOfLiberty]

63. And polls also showed

a very close race between the Hillary and Bernie in CA.

So, why would we override the will of the voters based on polls?

[Lord Magus]

71. No it's not a huge issue.

And it's deeply offensive that you're so dismissive of the voters' choice. Remember, Bernie is a democratic socialist. Are you?

[jzodda]

73. SOME polls show its close

and all within margin of error.

So no and also...

Fuck the polls till September and the battle lines are fully drawn. Using polling, which changes from day to day or week to week is a terrible way to pick a candidate.

Why have a nomination contest at all if you want to use polls.

[Loki Liesmith]

108. 2 Polls from 3 weeks ago

The phrase "polls show" means nothing. Stop using it.

As it stands a handful of polls had a trump lead. That no longer holds true

[tonyt53]

14. Drop the caucus wins by Bernie and the reliably red states that he won and it gets worse for Bernie

Hillary ran a warm-up campaign for the general election and Bernie got taken to the outhouse. You know why nobody heard of Bernie? He's never really done anything. He has always been a follower. His campaign style shows why. Everybody knew than when colleges let out for the summer, that Bernie was done. He is a bitter person, hell, both he and his wife are bitter people and poor losers.

[pinebox]

22. Let's open it up

and take a look at GE matchup because those are the numbers which matter.
Only Bernie beats Trump clearly, Hillary does not and this is going to be the argument. Hillary's numbers NEVER go up.
You say Bernie hasn't done anything when in reality he has done a lot more than Hillary and guess what, he hasn't sent people into battle to kill other peoples kids either.

You can sit here and criticize Bernie all you want and spew personal attacks on him but remember this, no other candidate in history has been under an FBI investigation and Hillary's numbers are some of the lowest ever of any Dem candidate.

That's reality. And oh, just in case you didn't know, Bernie is called the amendment king and he has the highest approval rating of ANY US senator.

[Lord Magus]

72. He calls himself the amendment king.

And no he has not done more than Hillary. Nor does your "he polls better" argument matter at all.

[ExtraGriz]

25. also don't play well with others...n/t

[Lord Magus]

69. She "shook" him on March 15.

Just because he has yet to admit defeat doesn't mean he's still in it and there will not be a contested convention. If you think there will be you don't know what a contested convention actually is.

[tonyt53]

102. Hillary wins it on first vote call.

[Orsino]

92. Don't panic. It's just a vote.

One more won't hurt.

[jcgoldie]

106. "contested convention"

The way they toss around this phrase it seems to just mean that the loser refuses to accept reality.

My wife likes to watch that show the voice where amateurs compete in singing contests. We usually have a "contested viewing". We watch it but I'm not happy about it

[sufrommich]

2. It's over. nt

[RandySF]

4. .

[Zynx]

5. Give it a rest. There's no contested convention.

Hillary's super delegates aren't budging.

[pinebox]

6. She won't have enough

So yes, actually there will be.

[Zynx]

10. With super delegates, she has way more than enough.

[pinebox]

30. We shall see

[Adrahil]

20. yeah.

[jzodda]

75. Your so off base..please come back to reality

A contested convention is where a candidate does not have enough votes to secure the nomination on the first ballot.

She has the needed votes so there is NOTHING TO CONTEST.

[floppyboo]

82. Don't the SD's vote on the first ballot? If so, you can't guarantee she's got enough. nt

[jzodda]

83. Yes all of them can vote on first ballot

Its beyond fantasy to think that they will change their minds. They have decided and keep in mind after yesterday she needs less and less of them overall making it even harder.

Waiting for an indictment seems to me to be a terrible political strategy.

[floppyboo]

86. Yes, waiting for an indictment is a bit far fetched, but there is more to it than that.

There is a whole platform to be discussed. There is the need to keep this movement strong and going forward to save the progressive movement - and to keep the Democratic Party from 3rd way certain death. Or at least, get a new name or something.

[jzodda]

90. Well I can't argue with that

But if I were BS I would start negotiating this stuff like today and not wait till convention.

[floppyboo]

91. Yup. And hopefully Obama and Sanders will come up with a good way forward Thursday! nt

[MohRokTah]

7. BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Oh that's fucking RICH!!!! Setting an entirely new standard to achieve a nomination for the first woman nominee in history!!!!!!!

You do realize the standard ever since the introduction of Super Delegates (by Tad Devine, no less), the race is called when the magic number is reached, SUPER DELEGATES INCLUDED, don't you?

Oh man, you guys just don't even BOTHER hiding it any more!!!!!!

[Bobbie Jo]

8. It's over.

She won, end of story.

[pinebox]

31. I wouldn't be so sure

It's a long shot but anything can happen. It's politics. This country elected W twice. All bets are off.

[snooper2]

43. no, all bets aren't off- Would you like to make one? I'll even give you 3-1 odds!

[pinebox]

48. I don't bet on anything in politics

You shouldn't either. See my statement about W

[snooper2]

50. Lots of people bet on everything including politics- my 600 to your 200

Contested convention- you get $600-


No contested convention- you pay me $200


What a deal! Send me a PM with your personal info and well get something started!

[MyNameGoesHere]

56. I will bet you and spot you 300 delegates and 2 million votes

come on now that's pretty tempting right? Name your wager.

[Bobbie Jo]

61. No, I'm sure of this one.

Over.

The Democrats have a nominee, it isn't Bernie.

Time to move on...

[Jester Messiah]

47. End of chapter, maybe.

But this story isn't over, not by a long shot.

[NCTraveler]

11. I'm sorry to see you doing this.

[FSogol]

12. Sorry, but the convention is only contested if someone doesn't have enough support to win on the 1st

vote. HRC has more than enough, hence no contested convention.



PS, there is only one Primary left (DC) with 20 delegates.

[robbedvoter]

13. Contested convention: when the leading candidate is unsure to win the first round

of voting. What am I missing here?

[pinebox]

34. Honestly do you think she will?

I'm not convinced personally because nothing is a certainty in politics, ever

[Lord Magus]

70. Honestly do you think she won't?

It's over, she has way more than she needs to win.

[Demsrule86]

87. She will win undoubtedly

And Bernie Sanders is delusional if he thinks otherwise...maybe Obama can talk some sense into this angry bitter person.

[TwilightZone]

15. Green Papers has her at 2523 and lists her as the presumptive nominee

"2016 Democratic and Republican Delegate Count Update. Clinton 2,523, Sanders 1,690"

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

You might want to update your graph since the source is obviously not Green Papers.

[pinebox]

35. Source is GP

However it does look like we could have a contested convention.

[TwilightZone]

38. No, it isn't.

And you clearly have no idea what a contested convention is.

[liberal N proud]

17. What kind of math are you on?

[11 Bravo]

23. Is there such a thing as "crystal math"?

[liberal N proud]

24. I think this would be called Bernie Math

Only include the numbers you want to include

[SidDithers]

81. Awesome...

Sid

[pinebox]

32. I love it how you base this on ad hom attacks

And can't go after the message.

We'll see, Philly is going to be FUN!

[Agnosticsherbet]

18. Denial!

[pinebox]

33. Denial?

Nawww, wait until Philly.

[Logical]

19. Bernie supporter here, hillary won, we lost, time to beat trump. Nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Fine with me: we'll keep fighting and beating you until the end

The California ass-kicking was a precursor of what's to come in DC. The convention will be fun, too.

[Andy823]

26. Just have to keep stirring things up

Day in and day out. You do know that all this crap you post isn't going to change things. If you put half as much time into actually going out and trying to get Bernie elected as you do trashing Hillary every day, Bernie might have won.

[pinebox]

36. Yawn

Someone is mad because someone on the internet has an opinion that is different than their own.

[hrmjustin]

27. I know you love Bernie and losing is hard.

[pinebox]

37. We'll see what happens come Philly

[hrmjustin]

42. We will.

[grossproffit]

28. Funny, that looks like a Bernie campaign graphic.

[pinebox]

39. It is actually

Put on by people on twitter. Not official.

[justiceischeap]

29. PSST... math is not The Green Papers strong suit

Clinton's current PLEDGED delegate count is: 2,184.

She needed 2,026 pledged delegates for a majority. She has that. She needs 2383 to win the nomination at the convention, she has 571 promised Super D's.

As of right now, HRC received 15,565,922 of the popular vote--Trump has received 13,266,491 and Bernie has received 11,883,209.

The voice of the people have spoken--they clearly want HRC to be our Democratic nominee. So who in their right mind thinks that she is going to lose so many Super D's, that she'll lose the nomination? How many Democratic power players are going to flip to Bernie after he's spend a good portion of the primary tearing the Democratic Party down? Certainly not Democratic loyalists...most of which are Super D's.

[pinebox]

45. I do have this problem with your reply

"The voice of the people have spoken--they clearly want HRC to be our Democratic nominee."

No actually they haven't. "The people" refers to everyone. You get THAT in a GE not in primaries.

If you ask how he gets SD's, here you go.
This will be the argument and it's a strong one.

[still_one]

54. Those general election numbers are not valid. They do not accurately estimate the

electoral college

Now that it is a two person race, because Bernie has lost, those numbers are going to change dramatically in Hillary's favor.

There is no "hypothetical" about it anymore

[floppyboo]

84. I agree. They don't reflect chances inthe electoral college. But swing states do

and Bernie bests Trump with higher #'s in every one.

[justiceischeap]

60. The people *have* spoken

you just don't like what they've said. I get this was the primary election, but the people spoke, and they want HRC as the Democratic Presidential nominee, full stop.

And as the still_one said, polls this far out aren't reliable. So, no, Bernie doesn't really have a case because as the General goes on, Clinton will garner more support.

[Lord Magus]

74. People who don't show up to vote don't get a say in the nomination.

And you don't get to pretend that everyone who didn't vote wanted Bernie.

[still_one]

49. Its over. Some people are making themselves look foolish by this nonesense. Everything

you said by all measures show that this was a huge victory.

After yesterdays results, plus the previous primaries, there is no doubt that Hillary has a much more broad based support than Sanders.

It is time to move on to the general election

[zappaman]

40. Ok. n/t

[still_one]

41. It is over. Hillary won, and it wasn't by a small amount. More states, more votes, more delegates

Democrats want her to be the nominee.

Are you even going to vote for her in the general election? That is your business, but a large number of Sanders supporters, along with a broad diversified demographic will be voting for Hillary in November.

Here is the current delegate account:

Hillary 2178 Sanders 1810

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Its over, deal with it

[stonecutter357]

44. She beat him by almost 4 million votes.

[pinebox]

46. In a bubble

You need to remember that. See my reply above about polling in the GE.
This will be the argument Bernie will make.

[stonecutter357]

52. fuck Trump.

[still_one]

57. Kick & Rec!!! Most important, those national GE polls are not accurate. They do NOT relect

the electoral college, plus up until yesterday they were hypothetical, since it assumed a three person race. That is no longer the case, it is now a two person race

[onenote]

66. The SDs are a bit more sophisticated observers of the political scene than you seem to realize

They know that the election will be fought out in a limited number of states.
They know that Sanders isn't likely to have coat-tails, particularly if his most avid supporters view any elected official that supported Clinton as an "establishment" Democrat who should be primaried, not re-elected.
They know that national polling done 5 months before an election, before the VPs are named, before the conventions are held, before the debates aren't worth diddly squat.

The SDs are aware of those polls and they haven't switched positions. Pointing out those polls again won't change a thing.

[Lord Magus]

76. Fuck that bullshit.

Your dismissing the voters as "a bubble" is more offensive than anything Donald Trump has said.

[pinebox]

95. A few things here

It's "you're" for a start (sorry but that is a pet peeve of mine), secondly, it's offensive that I say that? Are you 100% sure of that? I stand by my assertions.

It's completely hypocritical of Dems to shut out Indy voters in the primaries and slam them how they shouldn't be allowed to vote in said primaries and yet come kissing their butt when the GE comes around.

It's a bubble. She is popular among a very majority of Dems and ONLY that, nothing more. We've been through this a gazillion times and you know what's up and you know what her numbers are, after all, you support her so I expect you to know what you're up against.

If you get mad about someone saying the word "bubble" then you are going to have a very tough time when Trump throws every single thing including the kitchen sink from Furr's Cafeteria at her.

[Lord Magus]

98. Yes I'm 100% sure of that.

Saying that the voters are a "bubble" is a incredibly offensive. And news flash, independents can vote in the Democratic primaries. Many did. The fact that others chose not to vote does not mean they were shut out.

BTW you might want to read again, "your" was the correct word. I was saying "your dismissing of the voters", not "you are dismissing of the voters".

[pinebox]

103. I disagree 100%

Newsflash many could not vote in primaries. See what happened in NY as an example. That is a controlled atmosphere.
Check out other states as well, much of the same situation with how people got the boot because they didn't change their registration in time, often times months ahead. You want people to vote, let them vote because this is suppression plain and simple.



As far as "you're/your", it can be read both ways. I'm sure you meant it as such

[Lord Magus]

104. What other states have registration requirements similar to NY?

Using an extreme outlier as an example doesn't work.

[jzodda]

77. You are trying to invalidate millions of votes!

What our votes don't count? also fuck the polls.

They are notoriously inaccurate in dealing with minorities and young voters. Hell many people these days only have a cell phone line and NO ground line. (like me)

[pinebox]

96. I am? Please tell me where I said such a thing

Never mind about the stuff which happened in AZ and other states.

Nobody said your votes don't count anywhere. Not sure where you're getting this.

"Fuck the polls!", yeah those same polls that campaigns base their leverage on and strategize from. Yeah, those polls.

[Lord Magus]

105. You want the nomination handed to the losing candidate by superdelegates don't you?

That's invalidating millions of votes.

[jzodda]

107. Your asking........

The convention to nominate Bernie when he didn't win the majority of pledged delegates and the popular vote.

If this were to occur it invalidates the process whereby the winner gets the nomination. To me that invalidates millions of votes because its as if they didn't count. If Bernie was where HRC is I would be saying the same thing in support of him.

That's just how I view it. As to polls, sure they are useful but less so now and more so after the conventions- The campaign kicks into high gear around labor day and that's when I start paying attention. I am sure others may view it differently.

Also I can't wait to see the latest polls after this "Mexican" fiasco.

[WhiteTara]

80. In a bubble called the U.S.

[pinebox]

97. In a bubble called the Dem party

The US includes everybody, not a small group of people, sorry.

[Stallion]

68. She Also beat Him By More than 400 Pledged Delegates After DC

that's about 4 times more than Obama beat her in 2008 when the last non-contested "Contested convention"
occurred

[6chars]

53. Why can't she close the deal?

[ucrdem]

58. She did. She's well over 2,023 PDs and 2,383 delegates. nt

[6chars]

64. yes, my rolling smiley was because of this.

[ucrdem]

67. Ah.

Hard to tell the difference between fantasy and reality here in GDP

[ucrdem]

55. LOL, The Passion of the Bernie.

Your figures are wrong again.

https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

[Maven]

59. ROFL

[onenote]

62. If Bernie pushes to a roll call vote, he will be humiliated one state at a time

He will lose by well over 1000 votes. (He's currently down almost a thousand and DC has yet to vote and there a quite a few SDs that will switch to Clinton and a relatively small number of pledged delegates yet to be allocated).

Actually, Clinton would hit 2383 before the roll call ended, at which point a wild celebration would being on the convention floor.

[brooklynite]

65. If by "contested convention" you mean there'll be a rollcall vote...

Here's a hint: there was ALWAYS going to be a rollcall vote. Bernie could even be a part of it:

If you mean there's going to be an effort to flip votes in Bernie's favor...you're living in a fantasy world.

[WhiteTara]

78. She'd still be the nominee. nt

[ucrdem]

79. hint: "now" is not June 6. That was Monday.

Clevuh.

[Gothmog]

85. There will be no contested convention

This claim is really silly but funny

[YouDig]

88. #berniemath

[Sancho]

89. If a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its ass when it jumped...

Bernie is proving that he would be an awful President. A good President can assess the factual information and make plans to deal with reality.

Bernie is emotional, irrational, and showing poor analytical skills.

By all historical and available evidence, this primary is over and Bernie needs to say so - and ask his supporters to get behind the Democratic nominee.

[pinebox]

99. Uh come again?

"Bernie is proving that he would be an awful President. A good President can assess the factual information and make plans to deal with reality. "

But someone under an FBI investigation would be awesome, right?

"Emotional, irrational, showing of poor analytical skills" you say? Yet remind us again who has a reputation of making horrendous bad judgment calls? You realize 4 years ago Hillary didn't even support gay marriage, right?

Many Bernie supports, a very large margin at that, have ZERO interest in supporting what amounts to a Dempublican. A whole lot of them. This is something your camp needs to come to grips with and one reason of several Hillary is the weaker candidate in a GE.

[Tarc]

93. You still don't understand what a contested convention is.

[pinebox]

100. Sure you go with that Tarc

[pdsimdars]

94. Not a clue. . .

It seems like most people don't have a CLUE as to what the ACTUAL RULES are. Now, it doesn't surprise that Clinton supporters don't know the rules and don't want to follow them anyway. . . .
Well, here's how they ACTUALLY decide.


If a Democratic primary candidate can win 59 percent of the Party’s “pledged” (primary- and caucus-won) delegates or more, the primary is decided by pledged delegates; if a Democratic primary candidate fails to meet that threshold, they are considered by DNC electoral processes to be a weak front-runner and the nomination is finally decided, instead, by “superdelegates” — who can express support for a candidate at any time, but cannot commit themselves to anyone (i.e., cast a binding vote for any candidate) until the Democratic National Convention in July; superdelegates are unlike pledged delegates in this regard because, while pledged delegates also do not vote until the Party’s convention, they cannot change their votes from what their state’s voting results pledged them to be — though it has been argued by some that in fact they can change their votes at the Convention, with this argument most recently having been advanced by Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2008.


It's clear enough that a grade schooler could understand it. 59% of pledged delegates or it's settled AT THE CONVENTION. Neither has won 59% or the PLEDGED delegates.

Here are the numbers

Clinton . . . . . 2173 . . . . 54%
Sanders . . . . 1844 . . . . 46%

(54% is not 59%)

[pinebox]

101. DING DING!

[rock]

109. That's why we call her the Presumptive Democratic Nominee

And why we call Bernie the Non Democratic Nominee.