Nate Silver just switched Florida to lite blue!!!!

[woolldog]

Bring it home Floridians!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[ProudProgressiveNow]

1. Great news...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[KaryninMiami]

17. I LOVE seeing Florida looking bluish!

Would love this to be what we see tomorrow.

[Kteachums]

36. I knew it! I told you guys. All of the Latino vote will help our Pres plus the women!

[sarcasmo]

52. He upset every race but the white voter, Pinocchio is toast.

[SLCLiberal]

41. Would be nice

but way too aggressive, c'mon now.

[LisaL]

2. What is it based on?

Were there any good polls coming out of FL?

[woolldog]

4. No not really

Gravis came out with a poll saying it's tied. Another poll Florida Times Union has Romney +5

I think it has to do with the pretty good national polls maybe? O's popular vote is up to 50.9%

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. Weight of Gravis and Mason Dixon is lower in Nates sheet

Also national poll will result into updates chances in FL.

[krawhitham]

20. Nate counters Gravis's +3 R lean in his model

[grantcart]

50. To give Gravis any weighting is IMHO a funny exercise.

If you have a person who is not a pollster trying to buy his way into the game you don't know what the motivations are in any given poll.

Having been faced with exposure Gravis might now be in full CYA mode by simply trying to appear neutral.


That he wastes his time considering a pollster who got in the business 78 days ago and admits that some of his earlier polls "were not very good" raises more questions than it answers.

[xtraxritical]

42. I think it's based on early voting exit polls. It's sure great news.

[FleetwoodMac]

18. I don't know about 'good', but these are the final day polls for Florida

Gravis: http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/11/final-florida-poll-shows-dead-heat.html

President Obama: 49%
Mittens: 49%

PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-too-close-to-call.html

President Obama: 50%
Mittens: 49%

Zogby: http://jzanalytics.com/

President Obama: 50.4%
Mittens: 45.2%

[ornotna]

22. For Gravis to have us even

means that we are actually 3 points ahead.

[Baitball Blogger]

3. Let's end on a high note!

I told you all so. Didn't I say so? Didn't I!

[davidpdx]

44. Reminds me of Grace's mom on Will & Grace

[jimlup]

5. Get out and vote and protect the vote!

This is the strong finish but we need to bring it home. Florida would make Ohio irrelevant... (Obviously we want both!)

[yellowcanine]

8. Well that will bring some more RW Pundit hate down on his head.

[woolldog]

9. ProudProggresiveNow

how'd you do that?

[ornotna]

10. I knew it!

Hot damn! I had a strong feeling we were going to go blue again. This will be so sweet if that's how it turns out.

[Tutonic]

11. Gotta get past Rick Scott first.

We're counting on you Flo-ri-das!

[Amonester]

12. 12 minutes ago (Nate's tweet)

Nate Silver
Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

[KaryninMiami]

13. I'm good with that- needed a night time K&R

Thanks, Nate. Warming my heart and helping me off the ledge as usual .

[Doctor Jack]

14. Finally got past 90%!!!

[MSMITH33156]

15. The real story here isn't Florida

although it is nice to see it blue, it is still basically even. The real story is the 9 swing states in total:

Chance of Obama win:
Wisconsin - 96.9%
Nevada - 93.8%
Ohio - 91.2%
Iowa - 85%
New Hampshire - 84.9%
Colorado - 80.3%
Virginia - 80.3%
Florida - 52.5%
North Carolina - 27.6%

Obama wins with ONLY the states that are over 90%, not to mention that Romney needs to flip several states that are over 80%, AND flip one of those 90%ers. Romney can win EVERY state where Obama is favored by 85% or less, and he still loses.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. AMEN!!!!

[joshcryer]

16. Ha, and Colorado went from light blue to fairly solid blue. Woot!

[RomneyLies]

21. WOOHOO!!!!!!

[cilla4progress]

23. Nate Silver is

CRAZY!!!!!!!

[SaveAmerica]

24. Stay in line, stay in line, stay in line!! It's worth it!!

[LongTomH]

25. Time for a Hallelujah!!!

&feature=colike

[jcgoldie]

26. Oh thats preeeeeeetty:)

[NCLefty]

27. He better not be pulling my legs.

[moobu2]

28. I'm going to need some medication and maybe some therapy after this election.

omg.

[denvine]

32. I need medication now!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

29. Oh yeah,...like we were supposed to believe Florida was going to vote to eliminate Medicare.

[teewrex]

30. My prediction - 400 for Obama

[morningfog]

34. That's just silly.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

31. North Carolina

was 82% blue just a few days ago. Now only 72%.

We can do this.

[AzDar]

33. Let's get it ON!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

35. Fingers crossed!

[Kteachums]

37. NC will be blue too!

[LonghornJack]

38. It May Be A Long Night for Florida Tomorrow...

...but that will mean a long, miserable night for Rmoney -- especially if (fingers crossed) Ohio gets called early for PBO.

Thank you, Nate Silver, for all the fine work that you do. With the news on Florida, you really made my evening. I'm really looking forward to tomorrow.

No early end zone dances, though. Let's do the GOTV thing!

GO OBAMA/BIDEN!!!

LHJ

[woolldog]

39. Hopefully Virginia can be the nail in the coffin then.

They seem to have their shit together unlike Ohio and Florida.

[ffr]

40. Well duh! That's what EV has been showing for over a week.

Good to be validated.

11/05/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL) FINAL EV. Dems surge to 4.6 pts > 167,000 votes
11/04/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems surge to 3.8 pts > 133,000 votes
11/03/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems surge to 3.2 pts, > 105,000 votes
11/02/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems surge to 2.6 pts > 76,000 votes
11/01/02 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems lead 2.2 pts, ~58,000 votes
10/31/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems increase lead 2.2 pts, > 48,000 votes
10/30/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems increase lead by 1% & 31,100 votes
10/29/12 - GOTV in Florida (FL), Dems lead ~ 9,300 votes

[malexand]

43. I'll take Nate Silver's math over Dan Rather's "gut" anyday...

Thanks for the great Florida turn to Obama. Winning Florida would be great! Dwell in possibility!

[kydo]

45. Good lets go make it a darker shade of blue

like a whiter shade pale.

[Vietnameravet]

46. Come on Florida..you owe us one from 2000!!

[bushisanidiot]

47. What a frickin' SWEET victory that would be!!

Romney spent way too much time in states that were out of reach and assumed
too much about FL and NC. HAHAHA!!

[marions ghost]

48. Florida

pulling for ya....

[polemic_realism]

49. feeling good in Tallahassee!!

I think it can happen!!!!

[gottavote]

51. Funny, it didn't look blueish. Great news. Do more GOTV MORE VOTES ARE GOOD.

[apnu]

53. I'm not gonna bet on 50.3% chance of Obama victory. I call that a coin toss. (nt)

[Blueprogress]

54. We can do this floridians!

I am on my way to GOTV. Maybe even drive some folks to the polls.