2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPredictWise 2016 President Electoral Map as of 06-14-2016 5:06AM
http://predictwise.com/politics/mapMost Likely Electoral Vote Outcome
Democratic
332
Republican
206
Demsrule86
(68,565 posts)Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Or Michigan, actually.
Demsrule86
(68,565 posts)She will win. And Michigan has a hated governor...having a GOP in the White House would only hurt them...they will go Dem as well.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)In the Ohio Dem primary, Hillary won with 679k votes. In the Republican primary, Trump *lost* and still got 727k votes. Ohio has open primaries, so anyone could vote for whoever they wanted, so it's not skewed simply by more people being eligible to vote in the R primary.
RockaFowler
(7,429 posts)The only way Drumpf can actually win Ohio is if Kasich runs with him. I doubt that will happen, though.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)Demsrule86
(68,565 posts)Open primaries are not good. I hate ours. it allows the GOP to play games. Ohio will not go for Trump...wait for it...and of course, Bernie got less votes than either Trump or Clinton...so trade didn't help him...a socialist can not win Ohio.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)TPP is not popular in the rust belt and I feel Trump will attack from that angle, as he has already.
That said, it looks like the the Republicans are really turning against him the past couple weeks, probably because of TPP. If that sticks, then Dems will be ok.
Demsrule86
(68,565 posts)And Trade cuts both ways these days..steel took a dump earlier when China was having trouble...in Ohio. Trump will not beat Hillary in Ohio...the only rust belt state he won was Michigan. Wisconsin is a different beast entirely...lived there too.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Everything and anything is bad for Hillary, no matter what it is.
Demsrule86
(68,565 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Sad little dead Enders they are.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)More Republicans voted in Ohio this year than Democrats. Was that true in 2008?
Sticking your head in the sand is sad.
PepperHarlan
(124 posts)The other poster is probably a little too dismissive but I think all things being equal by the end of this his campaign will be such a monkey fuck he'll have difficulty competing. We're already seeing the beginnings of a significant financing gap between the two which is another benefiT.
Her history with the TPP (she's now opposed to it) didn't hurt her one bit in Ohio against Bernie, a candidate who should have been able to exploit a weakness if there was one. She'll have to address it again but it's unlikely to be a significant issue in a race against someone like Trump.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)But the turnout numbers in the battleground states were disturbing this year. R's had more in most(all?) states.
That should not be ignored, regardless of who Dems are running this year.
PepperHarlan
(124 posts)I actually think there will be quite a bit of interest in this race which could lead to a good turnout. Time will tell.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)leftynyc
(26,060 posts)what Pres Obama got in 2012.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts).99center
(1,237 posts)Bernie may just run as an independent.