A Texas pollster explains how Hillary Clinton just might turn the Lone Star state blue

[NCTraveler]

Thanks in large part to Donald Trump, a number of solidly Republican states could be up for grabs during the 2016 presidential election. (In US political shorthand, that means turning “red” Republican states to Democratic “blue” ones.)

Purplish states like North Carolina and Indiana, which went for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012, are once again in the mix, but so are historically solidly-red Arizona and Georgia, which have large Latino and African-American populations, respectively. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton polls massively better with both groups when compared with Trump.

http://qz.com/702577/a-texas-pollster-explains-how-hillary-clinton-just-might-turn-the-lone-star-state-blue/

[TwilightZone]

1. Turnout would have to be way better than it's been for that to happen.

Gerrymandering is a huge problem here. It dissuades local efforts and that bleeds over into the state and national races. The way the state has been hacked up for House races makes it hard to convince people to GOTV for the other races.

Not that we shouldn't try, of course.

[brooklynite]

2. Texas won't be in play...the Party organization isn't up to the job.

[forjusticethunders]

6. How fast could we change this.

Could enough boots on the ground do it?

I think we need to not only beat Trump but annihilate him to the greatest extent possiblle.

[Recursion]

11. Read "The mythical man-month"

Dumping people into an organization without the administrative infrastructure to manage them usually makes things worse, not better.

[Hortensis]

14. Has that been found to apply at the local

organizational level in politics? I'm trying to imagine what you're thinking.

Setting up a national computerized system of the complexity used today, sure, and I can certainly see that a bunch of kids flown in from other regions who don't speak the right language could be counterproductive, but wouldn't getting people knocking on doors with a script after a half hour of group roll playing be mostly an issue of volume, not complexity? How many local ministers can you get on board and turn loose to do their thing, not how to get the VA's health records on line?

[beachbum bob]

26. DNC has to get involved and get organized in ALL states

we are on the precipice and we need action....have to make conservatives defend and spend money on there traditional strongholds

[Gothmog]

5. Trump could turn Texas blue

[LenaBaby61]

7. Don't think so....

They'll have to be several more election cycles until Texas turns blue again. I've lived in California all of my life--lived through Ronald Reagan's hideous governorship as a small child when the state was DEEP Red, and now as a 55 year old, am living in a California and a Renaissance of sorts being lead by 78 year old Governor Brown again after the disastrous governorship of Ahnold, whose malfeasance helped turn the state DEEP Blue and it's very likely to STAY deep blue for at least a few election cycles due to various reasons, and on top of that, California has a rising star in Gavin Newsom who I feel WILL be the next Governor of California if he wants it, and from all I hear he does. The current crop of GOP'ers here in California are mostly non-existent and have really been left scrambling to remain relevant--thanks again to Ahnold's malfeasance and the fact that the demographics of the state are changing for the better. GOOD

I LOVE the fact that California is DEEPLY Blue, and hope it stays that way for many, many moons

Here's hoping that like California, Texas sooner--rather than later--can really GOTV under more liberal lawmakers and start registering it's citizens and take advantage of it's changing demographics/age/dissatisfaction of the secessionists there and do like we did here in California and throw the right-winged bums OUT

[Sunlei]

9. It will take Ca. a very long time to recover from the RW damage done, if ever.

[Sunlei]

8. It is koch$ states- Texas & Utah, republicans want to remove trump for cruz

If back in 2012 Mrs. Clinton had run for governor of texas, she would have won and Tx would be in a bluer place today.

[LostOne4Ever]

10. People thought that Wendy Davis had a shot here

[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=#009999]Her loss was absolutely devastating.

Texas is not turning blue now or anytime in the near future.

PERIOD. End of discussion.[/font]

[Blue_Adept]

12. Thanks for keeping optimism alive!

[hobbit709]

23. All Wendy got from the National Party level was bad advice.

Don't say anything controversial, don't make waves-sound familiar?
They didn't want her to take a stand against fracking, so she lost her home district-the same district that voted overwhelmingly to ban fracking.

[seabeckind]

27. Stop with all the negativity

You're demoralizing the herd.

[seabeckind]

15. I wouldn't count on Indiana

Last edited Sun Jun 19, 2016, 08:35 AM - Edit history (1)

Very big not-Hillary opinion. Very big.

This is a rust belt state. It went Obama because of the leftward campaigning and the hope for change. Obama took the state because of the minority areas in the major metro areas (inside the suburbs) and the major education centers.

There's going to be a real big turnout problem. There no party presence here. Bernie did it by building a separate presence because the democratic pols here are indistinguishable from republicans except by degree of republicanism.

A very large number of downticket seats have no democratic contender. This is a right to work state with republican supermajority.

And I wouldn't count on the educational centers.

And with the foundation laid by the current head of the DNC?

(oops, fixed title)

[Orsino]

16. Well, purplish. n/t

[Kentonio]

17. I could buy Texas flipping, but Georgia feels like a fantasy.

[seabeckind]

18. Based on the job of the democratic establishment

I wouldn't count much on any flip.

The attitude that comes across appears to be "I am so great, it's ridiculous you can't see it".

More and more it seems like the democratic establishment can't get outside the beltway.

And hel, they can't even make a big effort to get representation inside the beltway.

[Kentonio]

20. I don't disagree, but I think the Trump effect may give us a landslide we've done little to deserve.

[seabeckind]

21. I'm not so sure

Somewhere along the way the goal of "put a democrat in the White House" turned into "put Hillary in the White House".

Yeah, Trump may have disapproval on the other side of 60% but... our champion is disliked by over 50%.

And it doesn't seem to concern them cause they are charging along ignoring it.

[woolldog]

24. It certainly is concerning, but

what do you propose to do about the fact that our nominee has high unfavorables? At this point what is your solution, given that the voters have spoken.

[seabeckind]

25. Gee, I don't know.

Maybe the DNC should do a little self-exam and find out the reasons and look to marginalize them?

Asking the choir what's wrong with church attendance doesn't seem like a good approach to me.

(added) And tomorrow, nobody but the choir will be able to respond. That'll help.

[woolldog]

28. Im not following you...?

[seabeckind]

29. Tick, tock.

Does that help?

How about the idea of a manager who only surrounds himself with yes men? While his division is not performing as well as it should.

In any real life situation, the manager is replaced... along with the yes men.

Unfortunately for us, the manager in question is someone like DWS who has changed the mandate from electing a democrat to electing a Hillary.

And this site will not allow a disparaging word.

Does that help?

[woolldog]

30. No offense, but I honestly have no idea what you're talking about.

or how that's a response to my question. But nvm.

[grossproffit]

19. Many of our friends will be working on the ground in Arizona.

I'll be doing whatever necessary to help us win.

[hobbit709]

22. Not as long as the yahoos keep electing people like Gohmert, Farenthold, and Pistol Pete.

Those voters are dumb enough to vote for Trump no matter what.

[TeamPooka]

31. K & R nt

[B Calm]

32. I see Indiana going for Trump. The only yard signs I see here are for Trump. Have not yet

seen a Hillary sign. Lots of gun humpers here.

[Exilednight]

33. As a temporary Texas resident, I know for a fact that Hillary will

Not win Texas. It's an impossible state to turn blue with a moderate Democratic candidate. Ann Richards won Texas by being a deep core liberal who managed to fix the economy and pass gun legislation in a state where 3 out of 5 homes have a gun.

Texans don't like wishy washy moderates, but they do like people who tell them exactly where they stand on an issue, even if they disagree with you.

Latinos can't save the brand in a state where the rolls are regularly purged and minorities are often discussed from voting while being pushed to the margins. 2024 is the closest we could win Texas, 2028 being a more realistic goal, providing there are no major changes to voter law or demographic shifts.