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2016 Postmortem

UCmeNdc

(9,600 posts) Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:01 PM Jun 2016

538 launches first general election forecast 2016: Hillary 353 EVs to 183 Trump.

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Hillary 81% chance of win.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/06/29/1543748/-538-launches-first-general-election-forecast-2016-Hillary-353-EVs-Trump-183-81-chance-of-win?detail=email&link_id=1&can_id=929e73d7d0662c9384a389eb8b503297&source=email-nate-silvers-538-launches-first-general-election-forecast-2016&email_referrer=nate-silvers-538-launches-first-general-election-forecast-2016&email_subject=nate-silvers-538-launches-first-general-election-forecast-2016

4 replies

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538 launches first general election forecast 2016: Hillary 353 EVs to 183 Trump. (Original Post) UCmeNdc Jun 2016 OP

Sounds good to me! Doodley Jun 2016 #1

These are good numbers but does not stop the need to work hard to GOTV. Thinkingabout Jun 2016 #2

These are good numbers but does not stop the need to work hard to GOTV. LenaBaby61 Jun 2016 #3

First set of numbers, but state by state polling is weak right now jeanmarc Jun 2016 #4

Doodley

(9,089 posts)

1. Sounds good to me!

Reply to UCmeNdc (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:07 PM

Jun 2016

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)

2. These are good numbers but does not stop the need to work hard to GOTV.

Reply to UCmeNdc (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:11 PM

Jun 2016

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)

3. These are good numbers but does not stop the need to work hard to GOTV.

Reply to Thinkingabout (Reply #2)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:20 PM

Jun 2016

Of course!

jeanmarc

(1,685 posts)

4. First set of numbers, but state by state polling is weak right now

Reply to UCmeNdc (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 06:32 PM

Jun 2016

Nate Silver says so. That's why he likely delayed this for so long.

Great numbers to see right now, they will change, and I hope it actually gets better. But I'd like to see more polls in each state to support these numbers. Even the shitty Rasmussen polls.

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