Breaking! New GA poll: Hillary now leads Trump

[Cattledog]

Hillary 44%
Trump 40%


http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/

[kurt_cagle]

1. AZ too

Nate Silver has Clinton taking AZ in the NowCast, and the Polls and Polls+ show both GA and AZ as very lightly red.

Five Thirty Eight Now Cast

[CobaltBlue]

2. • B O N U S • Nebraska #02 (Omaha) favored as a Democratic pickup

Friday, 08.05.2016, @ 12:00 p.m. ET: According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Democratic pickups from North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona—plus Nebraska #02 (Omaha)—would take a 2012 re-elected Barack Obama’s 332 up to a Hillary Clinton 375 electoral votes.

Nebraska #02 produces margins like Indiana. In 2004, George W. Bush carried Indiana by +21 and Nebraska #02 by +22. In 2008, Barack Obama flipped both and carried them each by +1. In 2012, Mitt Romney flipped both and carried Nebraska #02 by +7 and Indiana by +10.

Over the last two elections, Missouri and Indiana were separated by 1.16 (2008, when Obama flipped Indiana at D+1.03 but John McCain narrowly held Missouri by R+0.13). And in 2012, Missouri was just 0.33 percentage points more Republican than Arizona. (Romney carried Arizona at +9.03 and Missouri at +9.36.)


Missouri and Indiana are not far behind Georgia and Arizona—just 2.40 separated, in 2012, Georgia and Indiana—so a national shift that flips Georgia and Arizona could spread to flipping Missouri, Indiana, and Nebraska #02. That is, if this gets even worse for Donald Trump.