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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 09:26 AM Aug 2016

It’s Too Early for Liberals to Gloat About Trump - By Michael Tomasky

Trump could calm down, Hillary could stumble, and who knows what nasty surprise Putin could uncork in October. In this election, all we know is that there is no sure thing.

As I commit these words to screen, Nate Silver has Hillary Clinton at 77 percent likely to win the White House. She’s cruising toward 330-plus electoral votes. And as for Donald Trump, they haven’t invented a word for how bad his week has been. And that was before we learned he’s married to an illegal immigrant. It’s a good week to gloat if you’re a liberal, but gloat weeks are exactly the weeks that make me a little nervous. Three reasons:

First, every week isn’t going to be like this week. Life just doesn’t work that way. Trump will have weeks when he’ll calm down a little. He’ll always be obnoxious, of course, but he won’t always launch gratuitous attacks on the infant-American community. I know we all agree now that Trump can’t help himself. But I continue to suspect that there may come a time when he can help himself, and he’ll spend October comporting himself like Atticus Finch. In addition to this, Clinton will surely have her own bad weeks. She’ll say something off-key, make a big blunder. Maybe someone will find an email from her saying, “Hey, here’s an idea, let’s pay Iran ransom money!” (More seriously, given her generally tough-minded foreign-policy posture, it seems to me just as likely that they’ll find an email in which she raised concerns about paying Iran this 40-year-old debt.) And finally, who knows what Putin is holding back for an October Surprise? I’m not really joking about that, alas.

Second, even with Clinton’s convention bounce and Khan bounce, this thing is still closer than it should be, reflecting the reality that one-third of America thinks she belongs behind bars and a significant portion of the middle third kinda-sorta agrees (the third third, of course, is in Clinton’s corner). And there isn’t much Clinton can do to change that unless she rescues a falling baby or something. In addition, Clinton hatred will really rev up by October, and I assume that the TV ads from the anti-Clinton PACs will be numerous and brutal.

Third, there’s one way at least in which the Trump campaign has finally normalized. It raised more than $80 million in July, almost as much as Clinton. Now, the question is, what in the world is he going to spend it on? He doesn’t really need to buy television ads. He gets 50 of those every day for free.

-snip-

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/05/it-s-too-early-for-liberals-to-gloat-about-trump.html
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It’s Too Early for Liberals to Gloat About Trump - By Michael Tomasky (Original Post) DonViejo Aug 2016 OP
+1, tRump needs 3 - 4 more weeks of what he has done here lately to define himself to most voters uponit7771 Aug 2016 #1
It is not a primary Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #8
I agree. Who knows what kind of vile attack ads Trump will air? Va Lefty Aug 2016 #2
I agree 100%, and especially on the Putin surprise part. tonyt53 Aug 2016 #3
Exactly! Far too early. Here's a DU post from January 31, 2004: "Election 2004 = Cakewalk. Relax." Glorfindel Aug 2016 #4
Bush did not win...election was stolen in Ohio. nt Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #7
I swear, I don't think I will feel like gloating Libby2 Aug 2016 #5
Just can't let Democrats enjoy the moment I guess... Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #6
My take is so people do not take Hillary winning for granted . Kathy M Aug 2016 #11
No one would do that. Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #15
I am glad Clinton and Kaine are doing well , I like both of them . Kathy M Aug 2016 #20
We'll enjoy the moments about 10PM ET on November 8th. ProudToBeBlueInRhody Aug 2016 #21
Then what the hell is this big-ass grin doing on my face? n/t Orsino Aug 2016 #9
Complacency is our biggest enemy here. B Calm Aug 2016 #10
Focus... MrScorpio Aug 2016 #12
Reporting polls does not equal gloating. We report polls when they have HRC up and when they have Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #13
Tomasky is absolutely right peggysue2 Aug 2016 #14
I don't know anyone who is gloating Fast Walker 52 Aug 2016 #16
Worst case would be an international incident, we'll need the extra points flamingdem Aug 2016 #17
What a load of crap. Lord Magus Aug 2016 #18
I don't think there is anything that can happy treestar Aug 2016 #19

uponit7771

(90,344 posts)
1. +1, tRump needs 3 - 4 more weeks of what he has done here lately to define himself to most voters
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 09:28 AM
Aug 2016

... right now its just a blip because most people don't watch the US primary races

Demsrule86

(68,578 posts)
8. It is not a primary
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 01:16 PM
Aug 2016

We are in the GE and the conventions are over. On September 17th, 2012. David Corn posted the Romney 47% comment. That ended Romney's campaign in my opinion. I think some who may have doubted Hillary in the past are surprised that she is a way better candidate than you thought she would be.

Va Lefty

(6,252 posts)
2. I agree. Who knows what kind of vile attack ads Trump will air?
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 09:34 AM
Aug 2016

The anti-Clinton PACs and Trump will get desperate and go low. The "Hillary hate machine" will amp up in October.

Glorfindel

(9,730 posts)
4. Exactly! Far too early. Here's a DU post from January 31, 2004: "Election 2004 = Cakewalk. Relax."
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 09:48 AM
Aug 2016

ArtieBoy Donating Member (248 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-31-04 01:43 AM
Original message

Election 2004 = Cakewalk. Relax.


My post is a post of optimism and hope, because there are two Americas. One is the Bush America, right? Where everybody loves Bush and he could never be beaten. Then there's the other America, the one where you and I live. And where about 75% of America lives, according to a recent poll.

In the REAL America, Bush has engaged us in a war for weapons of mass destruction that his own inspector and Secretary of State now say never existed. He's taken us from a budget surplus to a deficit in the hundreds of billions. He's spent billions to launch us to Mars when here in Atlanta they're increasing taxes 120% to save the water system. His number one propagandist is up on illegal drug charges, and my mom said even Rush was bashing Bush today about sending us to Mars while we have a deficit! And his constituency is scratching their heads over this illegal immigration plan.

So in conclusion I would like to say that we're wringing our hands for nothing. I get the feeling we could run a mossy rock and win against Bush this time. And we're gonna beat him, and we'll beat him again, and we'll beat him again! That's what we're gonna do! That's what you and I will do together!

:toast"
____________________________________________________________________________________________
No offense intended to DU'er ArtieBoy. Most of us were still feeling that way the day before the presidential election in November 2004. We can't ease up or take anything for granted. The Repukes will crawl through hell and/or high water to vote. They will lie, cheat, and steal. The only thing that matters to them is beating Democrats. Relax for a single minute, stay home and pout instead of voting, and we wind up with President Trump.




Libby2

(4,629 posts)
5. I swear, I don't think I will feel like gloating
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 12:34 PM
Aug 2016

until HRC is sworn in. But I am enjoying watching the Donald implode.

Demsrule86

(68,578 posts)
6. Just can't let Democrats enjoy the moment I guess...
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 01:01 PM
Aug 2016

Why is good news always met with this sort of post?

Kathy M

(1,242 posts)
11. My take is so people do not take Hillary winning for granted .
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 02:33 PM
Aug 2016

Last night on Rachel Maddow show she was wondering why Don went to Maine . I happened to be scanning net last night , okay.... Don's twitter , there was a picture of don and group of people that were volunteers for Gotv . One thing I am not sure of is what type of grass root volunteer his campaign has that may not be on radar ...............

Demsrule86

(68,578 posts)
15. No one would do that.
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 03:28 PM
Aug 2016

But, not saying you, some post this stuff because the don't like Hillary Clinton and can't admit she is doing well...get tired of it.

Kathy M

(1,242 posts)
20. I am glad Clinton and Kaine are doing well , I like both of them .
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 08:30 PM
Aug 2016

My eye has stopped twitching since numbers changed to their benefit ....... There are 3 more months and I hear negative comments from some people around me ( brother and sister in law , a friend ) then the concern starts for election day . Main reason I joined this year , have lurked off and on for a few years

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
13. Reporting polls does not equal gloating. We report polls when they have HRC up and when they have
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 02:48 PM
Aug 2016

her down.

I'm not sure where he's seeing this gloating from.

If anything, we liberals have a habit of being very pessimistic. And I'm sure most of us know and understand very well that we need to work hard as if the polls have HRC down by 10 or 15 points.

Right now it's fun to laugh at Trump and make fun of him. But I don't know anyone who really believes this election is already won.

peggysue2

(10,829 posts)
14. Tomasky is absolutely right
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 02:59 PM
Aug 2016

No gloating or pretending this fight is wrapped up. But . . . personally I and other Hillary supporters deserve to briefly enjoy the moment.

The 90+ days left in this campaign is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen. And probably will which is why Hillary keeps doing the exhausting work of manufacturing tours, rallies and fund raisers. She's not taking anything for granted.

The Putin connection is worrisome because Putin would lo-o-o-ve himself a Trump presidency, a chance to see the US humiliated and weakened, while his own interests are courted by an arrogant dunce. Frightening scenario.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
17. Worst case would be an international incident, we'll need the extra points
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 03:32 PM
Aug 2016

for the fear factor that Trump will exploit

Lord Magus

(1,999 posts)
18. What a load of crap.
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 03:40 PM
Aug 2016

Trump will never "calm down" because he's literally incapable of doing so. Trump has not been any more out of control this week than he was in every other week of the campaign. Anyone who thinks this is just an act on Trump's part, or that he's capable of acting differently, is at this point clearly an idiot.

What we have here is another pundit who's insisting that the race is close no matter what the actual numbers say, because if the race isn't close there's no reason for anybody to listen to pundits talk about it.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
19. I don't think there is anything that can happy
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 04:09 PM
Aug 2016

or any conceivable Hillary stumble that will cause people to change from her to Trump. Anything bad that happens in the world - it will be seen as what would Trump do or he will say something stupid. He is not going to "calm down."

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