538's nowcast at 92.9%! even has hillary winning arizona and georgia!

[unblock]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

more meaningfully, polls-plus has hillary at 75.4%!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus



i'm sure this will narrow by november, but i'm certainly enjoying it for now!

[ffr]

1. But only if we work at it. We need to help convince voters

to stay vigilant. There's no victory until we've voted and gotten others to the polls to do the same. We need every vote possible cast for every democratic candidate there is. It's critical we elect people we like to represent our best interests.

[ffr]

2. Not Texas!

Grrrr.

I think we need some NM influence over in Texas, helping drive the voter registration and GOTV efforts there.

[CobaltBlue]

3. Plus Nebraska #02 (Omaha) is favored as a Democratic pickup!

Last edited Fri Aug 5, 2016, 03:38 PM - Edit history (1)

I noted this in another thread addressing this topic.

Pickups from not only North Carolina but also Georgia and Arizona—plus Nebraska #02—would take Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election, electoral-vote score of 332 to 375 for a 2016 Hillary Clinton.

It could grow further. In 2012, Missouri and Indiana closely followed Arizona for Mitt Romney’s states’ margins. They appear, on this date (08.05.2016), to be underestimated.

[yellowcanine]

4. South Carolina is teetering.

[Brother Buzz]

6. My Magic 8 Ball says Missouri and Utah are poised to flip too

Patience, Grasshopper.

[cynatnite]

5. GA and AZ turning blue is proof just how bad of a candidate the repubs have. n/t