Which state will turn blue next? I say South Carolina.

[yellowcanine]

Missouri and Utah looking pretty good also.

[redstatebluegirl]

1. Well, this is great but we still need to get out the vote!

[democrattotheend]

2. Matt Santos won it on West Wing

But he also won Texas and lost Vermont and California. Not very realistic.

[MohRokTah]

3. West Wing was an alternate Universe.

The year for presidential elections was offset in that universe by two years due to Nixon's resignation, too. So Santos was elected in 2006.

Nixon's presidency is the key event of divergence in that universe.

[bluestateguy]

5. right

And I think in the WW universe the Republicans took over Congress in 1984 or 1986.

And President D. Wire Newman (James Cromwell) was the Carter-type of president.

[MineralMan]

4. Well, maybe, but only if we can get out the vote heavily in

that state, which puts many barriers up to keep the black vote low. If the state government manages to keep black voters away from the polls, as usually happens, there's little chance for it to turn blue. If, on the other hand, we take GOTV and voting rights very seriously in that state, it could go blue.

Georgia is a possibility, as is Arizona. I don't hold out much hope for Utah, though, in the end. Missouri could easily go for Hillary, though. That wouldn't surprise me too much, really.

A lot is going to depend on how stupidly Trump runs his campaign. If he continue to lose ground with Republicans, anything could happen. If enough Republicans decide to vote for Johnson, for example, that could be enough to shift several states over to blue status. For example, Texas Republicans might respond to Johnson's candidacy positively, if Trump gets more stupid. That could be enough to flip Texas.

Keep watching the polls. They'll tell the story as we get closer.

And GOTV! That's the key.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

6. Well, it is home to Democratic President......

....Frank Underwood.




(As an aside, it is pretty interesting that House of Cards doesn't shy away from giving partisan labels to their characters, but yet essentially makes them pretty much meaningless?)

[gogo_du]

23. If you mean democrat or republican

Frank was actually a repub in the book but for the show repubs were hated so much they made him democrat to make it watchable.

[Stubborn]

7. LOL! No chance.

People are nuts in that state.

Only reason Georgia has a chance is because of Atlanta.

[DesertRat]

13. You can't paint whole states with one brush

You might be surprised by what happens this year.

[kestrel91316]

8. My money is on Missouri.

The entrenched bigotry, racism, and misogyny in SC is pretty hard to overcome.

In Utah you have the Mormon church tainting everything, but the dominance of SLC and its non-Mormon majority could swing it.

Here's how I think it will go: MO first, then UT. Only maybe then SC.

[GoCubsGo]

14. The bigotry, racism and misogyny are selective here.

We have a female governor who is of Indian descent, a black US senator, and the other has long been rumored to be gay. If they were Democrats, the odds of them attaining their current offices are slim. But, as we all know, IOIYAAR.

Oddly enough, when I first moved here, we had a Democratic Senator (Fritz Hollings), and my representative was a Democrat, but she was replaced by Lindsay Graham during the 1994 rethuglican "revolution." I live in the district that is now represented by the shitstain who called President Obama a liar during his first state of the union address.

That being said, I agree that MO will likely turn blue first. I'd say the odds of SC going blue are similar to those of UT. There are actually some fairly good-sized pockets of Democrats here, such as in Charleston and Columbia. A fat chunk of them have been gerrymandered into one district, while at least two have significant numbers, but just few enough that they generally won't make a difference, except maybe in rare circumstances.

[Gothmog]

9. I am still hoping for Texas

It is a long shot but I have hopes

[eissa]

10. I don't see that happening at all

I think we have a good chance of taking Arizona. But we need to maintain NC and FL. I think the bible belt will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to our side.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. Obama ended up losing NC by 3 or 4 points in 2012. In 2014 and 2016, NC became more Red.

I don't see that changing any time soon. Yes, the ID laws were struck down, but with the rightward tilt at all levels of NC government, I simply don't see it happening.

Arizona and Florida, with it's growing Hispanic and changing Hispanic/Latino populations, is more realistic.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. SC is too far gone. I would say Maine and New Hampshire.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Huh?

Maine is blue as ever.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. I was thinking of LePage but you're right

[LoverOfLiberty]

17. If NH is still being contested

then it indicates weakness in other swing states. Last poll I saw had D+15 so I'm thinking its not on the table for Rs this time around.

[axiom3]

19. Either SC or Texas in my opinion

Utah's population is heavily Mormon, so I doubt it'll turn blue anytime soon. In Texas, the Hispanic population, as well as the population of other minorities, is increasing more and more each year, and they tend to vote Democratic. Ditto for South Carolina. At this rate, I'd say either of those 2 states will flip blue by 2020-2024. That's just a wild guess, though.

[GulfCoast66]

20. My rule of thumb...

Anyone projecting SC or Texas is going Blue his election must live in Colorado or Oregon.

I hope they are right and will apologize profusely if they are. But I live in the South. I can't see it. Even MO seems crazy to me, but at least they have St. Louis.

Do not count FL as a given. There are lots of rednecks and bitter, white Midwestern retirees down here that are all in for Trump.

And I say that as I liberal redneck! They often volunteer their thoughts to me because they assume someone driving a truck with boots, jeans and a cap on are on their side.

As an aside...I used to just be noncommittal, but now I tell them that after spending several months in Europe I am a Social Democrat. I wish I could film it.

[brooklynite]

21. Is this based on some actual data? Or just a feeling?

[yellowcanine]

24. It has been light pink for a while on 538.

Differences have fluctuated from 1-3 points ever since the conventions.

[TheFarseer]

22. What about Texas?

Lots of Latinos and they didn't vote Trump in the primary.

[Demsrule86]

26. I have heard that Texas is in play

Maybe someone as evil as Trump will bring out the vote.

[Demsrule86]

25. This is so awesome...to even force the GOP to spend in those states

but this year...we might actually win some? It is blowing my mind in a good way!

[book_worm]

27. The media is currently focusing on Trump eventually out of "fairness"

They will start in on Hillary. So while things are looking good now--I can still see the media trying to influence the horse race.

[JCMach1]

28. Watch Texas...

[AgadorSparticus]

29. ARIZONA! is a real possibility this year. Woohoo!