Aug 5: Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the presidency.

[riversedge]

I wish the election was tomorrow!!


Who Will Be President?

By JOSH KATZ
Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the presidency.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Last updated Friday, August 5 at 6:37 PM ET
Chance of winning
80%
Hillary Clinton
20%


Donald J. Trump

Forecast history ↘ State by state ↘ Other forecasts ↘ Likely scenarios ↘ Explore paths ↘

The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a Major League Baseball player will strike out.

From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
......................







The Upshot Verified account
‏@UpshotNYT

Donald Trump's chances of winning hit a new low in our forecast: 20%. http://nyti.ms/2aApO51

[Mass]

1. Good, but we need to be careful

Some media, such as CNN (and I would imagine FOX, but I do not watch it) are dedicated promoting Trump.

I had stopped watching CNN, but today, I watched it for 15 min (3 x 5), and really 5 minutes was all I could take. Most of the time, there was no Democrats, just pro and anti-Trump Republicans, the theme was generally how Trump was pivoting and being good and apologizing for the plane story and Trump's surrogates were allowed to speak with very little fact-checking.

Actually, they let a Trump's surrogate tell us that Clinton's infrastructure plan was increasing the debt (it is paid by taxes) and that Trump's plan (which is paid by bonds) was not!!! And nobody took the time to explain clearly that it was the opposite (except Hillary Rosen, but she was told she was partisan).

So CNN is really invested in Trump looking good and rebounding.