Trump isn't cooked yet: Clinton lead dips in latest polling

[MuttLikeMe]

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/08/trump-isnt-cooked-yet/

So, according to Nate Silver, Trump is just under five points behind. Five points. That's horrifying. And yes, I understand that the state polls are more important. The national polls, however, provide a convenient overview into how well the candidates are being perceived by voters. Nate's analysis:

That’s not bad for Clinton, but it might seem to suggest that her lead over Trump has abated. A week or so ago, we were seeing leads for Clinton in the mid- to high single digits, with occasional forays into the double digits. Overall, she seemed to be ahead by 7 to 8 percentage points.

Bottom line: the race is tightening. We don't know how tight it'll become, of course, but the lesson here remains: Don't get happy.

[RandySF]

1. Ebb and flow.

It's a natural part of an election. Study it close enough and you can predict its direction. I remember, in 2000, that Bush would gain ground as you got closer to the weekend, with Gore rebounding after the weekend. People as a group sway back and forth over a period of time.

[StevieM]

14. Randy, did you see my post to you in the thread where we are asked to make predictions for

Election Day?

I told you that 270towin allows you to split up the electoral votes from Nebraska and Maine.

Since you gave HRC Kansas I am thinking that you might also want to give her one electoral vote from Nebraska.

[Cicada]

2. These polls show Hillary INCREASING her lead

Follow the link. This subset of polls is a Trump leaning batch. Compared to last week these polls show Hillary INCREASING her lead. This post at 538 is GOOD news for Hillary. Go to 538 and read what they say.

[VOX]

7. Thank you! n/t

[writes3000]

3. I'm pretty damn happy. I'm an adult so I know the election isn't over.

I know how to interpret information and see the state of the race for what it is. If staying in a stay of concern makes you work harder, please tear your hair out. Tear it all out.

Me? I'm going to stay positive, donate and spread the word. And I'm happy as hell.

[Iliyah]

4. Is this a right wing site?

[MuttLikeMe]

10. Bob Cesca is as liberal progressive as they come.

[vadermike]

5. Trump has not improved this post is incorrext

See 538 ... ! She's holding steady In fact NBC poll today has her 9 ahead ! Survey monkey

[Demsrule86]

6. She is ahead and it is worse for him in the state polls

Hopefully it will be a blowout...and we take the House and the Senate.

[MFM008]

8. Who the hell was happy?

Last edited Tue Aug 16, 2016, 11:33 PM - Edit history (1)

When at LEAST half Americans are morons.
Anyone?

[zappaman]

9. That's it.

It's over.

[VMA131Marine]

11. A lot of the tightening today is due to the inclusion of the low-rated

Zogby polls. They seem to be outliers, but 538 includes all polls regardless, although they will be weighted less.

[book_worm]

12. Is there a specific poll he is referencing?

[Godhumor]

13. The article the author references on 538 says no such thing

Here are the two paragraphs directly following his chosen excerpt:

So what’s changed? Is Clinton’s convention bounce finally wearing off? Actually, pretty much nothing has changed, according to these polls. Because while we were seeing our fair share of 8- and 10-point leads for Clinton, we generally weren’t seeing them from this group of pollsters, which are (with a couple of exceptions) a Trump-leaning bunch.

Instead, these polls have been steady, at least on average. The table below compares each poll’s most recent result to its previous edition,2 as well as to each poll’s long-term average (that is, to the average of every previous edition of the survey going back to November 2015). On average, the most recent edition of these surveys shows Clinton up by 4.8 percentage points. But the previous editions showed her up by an average of 4.5 percentage points, so there’s been essentially no change.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-clear-and-steady/

The race has not tightened to 5 points.

[Demsrule86]

15. Either a careless mistake or he wants a horese race for ratings. nt

You can't trust any media these days.