Trump hurts GOP, but probably not enough to flip House

[DonViejo]

LAS VEGAS — Democrats scrambling to tie House Republicans to Donald Trump's embattled campaign like what they see in freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy. The plain-spoken, 59-year-old Nevadan is the rare House Republican who’s given the divisive, controversial GOP nominee a full-throated endorsement — and now appears to be paying the price.

Nevada’s sprawling 4th Congressional District, which incorporates parts of Sin City, the north Vegas suburbs and rural areas running up to Reno, and is heavily comprised of African American, Mexican American, Mormon and suburban voters — all groups which Trump has alienated or struggled to win over. On top of that, President Obama crushed Mitt Romney in the district by a double-digit margin in 2012, and top election prognosticators have put Hardy’s seat in the “Leans Democratic” column.

Democrats believe they have a strong candidate in state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, a 36-year-old Mexican American immigrant and former aide to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

The problem for Democrats is that they need more candidates like Kihuen. And perhaps more Republicans willing to run side-by-side with Trump like Hardy.

-snip-

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/291634-trump-hurts-gop-but-probably-not-enough-to-flip-house

[beachbum bob]

1. if democrats turn out in numbers, we can flip the house...the senate is pretty much a sure thing

DNC gotta invest in all states and all congressional districts that are within 8-10pts....

[tonyt53]

2. Senate - maybe and looking better. House - not until the 2022 midterms.

Even with a Democratic appointed majority on the SCOTUS, it will take time to get challenges through for all the gerrymandered congressional districts. And yes, there are some that are gerrymandered slanted towards Democrats. The 2020 census will change things though. Districts all over the country will have to be reworked. The 2022 midterms will be the turning point.

The key to getting anything through the house right now is to win as many seats as possible every year up to 2022.

[WI_DEM]

8. In the meantime we can't have anymore midterm elections like 2010 & 2014

where Dems lost tons of seats in the House and Senate if we are to get a majority again in the near future.

[Cosmocat]

9. That, unfortunately is not a given, either

PA is possibly the worse congressional and state level gerrymandering in the country.

And, the census probably will do nothing to change that.

There way districts are established has been cemented in law, it is approved by five people - the leaders of both parties in the state house and senate and one other person.

It gets challenged in court, but all that does is nibble on the edges, it is so bad to start with and nothing ever pushed back on what already exists.

And, the dirty little secret is this - while current elected democrats give lip service to how bad it is, they also know that the set up is why they have VERY cozy and safe districts, so while they talk a good game, they have absolutely no motivation to really do anything about it.

[whatthehey]

3. Pretty much. House closer but still R this time.

[mucifer]

4. IF we can get President Clinton and the senate we would get

better supreme court justices and maybe turn around citizen's united and things would improve.

[sofa king]

5. Not yet, anyway.

But there are still 80-plus days of disaster yet to come. Every day, I think it can't get worse for them and better for us, and every day I find I am totally incorrect, again.

[brooklynite]

6. I keep a database of all competitive House races...

We need net +32 to flip the Chamber. Right now, there are 26 R seats that are relatively competitive, but also 7 competitive D seats we need to hold on to.

[uponit7771]

7. Crap, at least we'll get the senate for a couple of years ....... I hope