Trump brags about crowd size but will it turn into votes?

[DonViejo]

By JONATHAN LEMIRE
Aug. 17, 2016 4:36 AM EDT

NEW YORK (AP) — It's a staple of nearly every Donald Trump rally: a boast from the candidate about his massive crowd size, a claim — sometimes true and sometimes not — that thousands more outside are hoping to get in, and a belief that the turnout foreshadows victory in November.

"I actually think I'm going good, I have the biggest crowds," Trump told Fox on Tuesday, in light of sinking poll numbers. "Nobody's ever had crowds like this."

But Trump may be buying into the hype. Crowd size is frequently not a good indicator of success on Election Day — and some Republicans attribute Trump's refusal to alter his message for the general election to his insistence on measuring success by the adulation he receives from audiences he's already won over. In a general election, candidates typically broaden their message to reach the people not in the event halls, who have yet to be convinced.

"Campaigns that rely too much on anecdotal evidence like crowd sizes when looking to measure progress are easily lulled into a false sense of security," said Kevin Madden, a senior adviser on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign. "They assume, often wrongly, that the echo effect of being surrounded by big crowds of already converted voters is automatically translating into momentum."

Boisterous, often full-house rallies have long been the lynchpin of Trump's campaign, and the Republican nominee took to Twitter in recent days to complain that the media were not giving them the credit they deserve. "My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm," Trump posted Sunday.

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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d74fbd472f7a420a90737e55cfb20c28/trump-brags-about-crowd-size-will-it-turn-votes

[Adrahil]

1. Ask Bernie Sanders.

Seriously... Didn't we hear this arguement just a few months ago? It was nonsense then, too.

[DonViejo]

2. "Deja vu all over again" eom

[rock]

6. Beat me to it

My comment then was, "Crowds don't vote!" Otherwise, of course, politicians would get elected by serving free beer.

[whatthehey]

3. President Paul and nominee Sanders agree.

[NurseJackie]

4. I remember similar claims earlier this year. I'll take it as a good omen when a candidate ...

... needs to talk about crowd size. Touting appearance over reality is a sign that a campaign is gasping for air, and going down yet again.

[LonePirate]

5. He has no GOTV ground organization. He is going to be in for a surprise on election night.

[tblue37]

7. He is a political novice. He doesn't understand that the tactics that win in

a primary tend to be disastrous in the GE. He also has no concept of how essential the modern data driven political ground game is, especially the GOTV effort. He openly says he won't need any of that stuff.