Ticket Splitting Has Trump in Lead but Bayh With Senate Edge

[brooklynite]

Monmouth Poll

West Long Branch, NJ - Donald Trump holds an 11 point lead over Hillary Clinton in Indiana, the home state of GOP vice presidential nominee Mike Pence. Enough voters, though, may be planning to split their ticket to send Evan Bayh back to the Senate after a six year absence. The Monmouth University Poll also finds the race to succeed Pence in the State House is neck and neck.

Among Indiana voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 47% currently support Trump and 36% back Clinton. Another 10% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, with 5% who are undecided. About the same number of Republicans back Trump (84%) as Democrats who back Clinton (87%). Independents are divided at 38% for Trump and 34% for Clinton, with 18% supporting Johnson.

Barack Obama eked out a razor thin win here in 2008, but Mitt Romney scored a 10 point victory four years later. Trump is doing better than Romney did among Indiana voters without a college degree (54% to 33% compared to Romney's 53%-45% margin), but is doing worse among college graduates (39% to 40% for Clinton compared to Romney's 55%-43% win over Obama).

"Pence is likely boosting the GOP ticket's prospects here, as Indiana voters really don't like either of the two presidential nominees. In fact, their favorability ratings are among the lowest the Monmouth University Poll has found anywhere we've polled," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

[tonyt53]

1. Trump was in Evansville this past Monday at a fundraiser. Tickets were $10K up to $250K

The guy that held the fundraiser lives in the largest private dwelling in IN. He made his money in coal AND in a company that he started called Ameri Qual. They make the military MRE meals. They flourished during the Bush I years. Most of the people that work in the Evansville plants are Hispanics. Yep, the guy makes money from war.

Outside the house gate, there were an equal number of supporters and protesters, totally about 8 all together.

The southern part of the state is heavily unionized and will go Hillary. Indy and Terre Haute, because of the minority populations will go Hillary. The northwestern part (Gary, Hammond) will go Hillary.

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Don't forget Bloomington!