Sabato's Crystal Ball: Clinton Safe and Likely Up to 272 EV

[Doctor Jack]

In addition, some Kansas and South Carolina have been downgraded from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican". Nebraska's 2nd district is now a "lean democratic", and New Hampshire is upgraded from "leans democratic" to "likely democratic".

New Hampshire’s new status is no small change, since we are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[vadermike]

1. great map

how much of this is baked in tho? what if Trump continues to Pivot with the assist of the horrible media ? and they further help him in the debates?? election day cant come soon enough!

[Doctor Jack]

2. Read the quote I just added from the article

Its such a tall order that even the best presidential candidate would almost certainly fail. And Trump is definitely not the best presidential candidate.

[Jarqui]

3. All these forecasts

http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/

plus 538.com
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

all saying very similar things.

He's in a deep hole.

Keep shoveling to fill that hole in!

[Doctor Jack]

5. I believe it is clear that he is going to lose

I just want him to lose badly now. I don't want a 3 or 4 point win and the TrumpKlan members to be encouraged to run more Trump like candidates for office. The Tea Party was bad enough but imagine if a bunch of egotistical mouth breathing fasciitis get elected as republican governors and senators.

[Jarqui]

6. I know what the polls say but the GOP play dirty

I'm not as confident. 2000 and 2004 still have an effect on me.

They're going to try to swiftboat her or something. I won't be completely comfortable until it's confirmed. They're desperate to cling to power.

But I would love to see this vile bigot absolutely humiliated. It would also send a message to those he frightened with his rhetoric and as you say, to those who backed this pompous %^&*$. And he'd drag a bunch of the other racists in congress down with him. After all they did to Obama, I'd like to see them obliterated for putting racism first and country second.

This racial problem has been around all my life. I'm sick of it. It can't hurt that problem by running them out of Washington as a lesson for the country - that you cannot get ahead with that ignorant attitude about races any more in America.

Maybe the discourse in Washington would get a little more reasonable towards jointly addressing the issues, too - with a more civil group not founded on hate and ignorance to serve the 1%.

[Laffy Kat]

4. Thanks, made me smile! nt

[amuse bouche]

7. Oh Universe.....let it be so

[st17011864200074656]

8. I love Nebraska!

2010: The 'non partisan' legislature redraws the congressional districts in order to prevent Democratic presidential candidates from winning electoral votes in Nebraska.

2016: Democrats are winning anyway! How's that working out for you?

I love it!

Edit: this was a reply to the thread, not a response to a particular post. I blame my mouse for the mix-up. Sorry

[amuse bouche]

10. No problem. Good news makes us all giddy

I just changed my mouse. It had a mind of its own and drove me batty

[clutterbox1830]

9. I think you mean 273 EV

190 + 83 = 273
Yes. I'm nitpicking