2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew PPP poll: Clinton: 48; Trump 43
Holds a similar lead with the full field, but at lower numbers. This holds steady from their last poll a month ago. Being leaked on Twitter, "official release" tomorrow. Good results, all things considered.
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)They had an eight point lead last week.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)Usually comes out early ...around 8:30....so, will be on Morning Joe.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Is that this lead is steady from last month, and it's a solid lead outside the MOE. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so all the bullshit and Trump 3.0 have amounted to very little in the end.
KMOD
(7,906 posts)between the parties to be within 1-2 points in the past 20 years.
The fact that Hillary is up by 5 in pretty incredible.
The handwringing on polls variations are driving me nuts. Could people stop behaving as if we had a 2 point race. I know the media would LOVE it, but this is not the case.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)will shut the hell up about the foundation and email messages.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)Third party voters start to fade in the polls by early October. That's the historical trend.
SCliberal91294
(170 posts)that it will fade some, but maybe not as much in the past.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Cosmocat
(14,567 posts)johnson is going to have the biggest share of votes for a third party candidate since Perot in 96, and it is pretty likely unless the media can avoid its nature and not come up with any more false "scandals" for Hillary in the next 70 days or so that she will, like Bill in 96, not get 50% of the vote.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)She's also been getting more than 50% of the vote in numerous polls lately. Don't see how this is going to tighten up much. Plus, the anticipation is that she will fillet him in the debates, so her numbers could even go up.
Someone posted an article from 538 that breaks down some of the dynamics of the third party candidates this cycle.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/down-ballot-democrats-should-go-after-johnson-and-stein-voters/
Still a ways to go, and this media is VERY capable, in fact inclined toward, finding some bullshit to gin up a "scandal" on Hillary, as her small dip in this set of polls reflects the bullshit over the foundation.
Also, she could kill the donald in a debate on the issues, but all it takes is her making the wrong face and that could be what the right wing and media make it about.
Finally, I am not sure where you are getting this stuff about her getting more than 50% of the vote in numerous polls lately.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
The polls RCP is showing this week have her at 41, 46, 49 and 44. The only poll there I see her at or over 50% is the one Q poll last week.
I am not saying he can't or won't get above 50 percent definitively.
Just that there IS going to be a lot of people voting for Johnson, and a lesser extent Stein.
If they get even a collective of 7% of the vote and Trump gets 44 percent ... basic math.
Cosmocat
(14,567 posts)nm
vadermike
(1,416 posts)Ok no more bed wetting GOTV lol
riversedge
(70,267 posts)Doodley
(9,118 posts)vadermike
(1,416 posts)And the big hitters are coming out after Labor Day which makes sense GOTV
Johnny2X2X
(19,094 posts)Trump supporters thing any poll not showing him down by 10 is good news for them. Polls this week are Hillary +10, +7, +5, and +8 and they think that's awesome because they're not +12, +13, +11, and +10.
This is not a close race so far and there are less undecideds that 3 weeks ago.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I'm so proud of Hillary!