Why do news outlets link to RCP average instead of HuffPo?

[molova]

What is it about the RealClearPolitics aggregator that makes it more accurate than the Huffington Post?
In fact, there's reason to believe it is the latter which is the most accurate, as it does not include junk polls (or at least keeps them in check).

Every "Hillary is nervous" type of article refers to the RCP average (which is lower than the HuffPo average).

What's up with that? It is also worth noting that RCP is owned by a Republican.

[splat]

1. HuffPo, a Dem group blog didn't pay writers, then hired a few journalists. No track record, cred n/t

[molova]

3. 1) You made up the "no track record" part 2) Natalie Jackson is not just "a blogger"

In 2012, HuffPo was already an aggregator.

And the chief of the polling section is Natalie Jackson has the following credentials:

"Natalie has a PhD in political science from the University of Oklahoma, with heavy emphasis on statistics, survey methodology, and American politics."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/natalie-jackson

Now please either delete or edit your post to reflect these truths.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. RCPis garbage

Their methodology is ambiguous at best and they don't even follow that all the time. Their is no rhyme or reason for how and when they add or remove polls from their average. It's not the oldest of the polls they remove. I've been watching then very closely this cycle and there is a bias. They will remove favorable Hillary polls from the poll sooner than favorable Trump polls, often even if the Hillary poll is newer data. And they selectively pick the Reuters poll to add with no rhythm or consistency. If Reuters shows Hillary +6 on the day they usually add it to the average, they wait a couple days, or add a different version of that poll.

It's a RW site IMO.

[Mass]

5. You're right on a couple of points

1/ RCP is Republican site. This is not a secret.

2/ Sometimes, they rush to get rid of polls

But HuffPo methodology is a problem as old polls continue to have an effect (hence outliers last way too long),

[molova]

7. so what's your suggested solution?

For the media to continue to use RCP alone?

[Mass]

9. Some are using HuffPost numbers.

But we can also use our brain and stop jumping at every single new poll that appears. That would be the best solution.

[molova]

11. That's false

Name one news article lately from a major news organization that used HuffPo alone as a source.

[Dem2]

13. Huffpo methodology

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/huffpost-pollster-poll-averages-methodology_us_57d1a3b2e4b06a74c9f361cb

You've likely seen it, just for anybody strolling through this thread.

[Mass]

14. Thanks. I should have posted it.

And it confirms the point I was making.

The advantage of using a Kalman filter model is that it doesn’t swing wildly in response to outlier polls. The disadvantage is that it’s slower to react to real polling changes than a traditional average. Under normal circumstances, the estimate for each candidate can move up or down about 1.5 percent from the previous day’s estimate. But the model allows about a 5 percent chance a candidate’s numbers could move more than 1.5 percent in either direction in a single day. So if four or five polls all showed a dramatic shift in the same direction within a day, the candidate’s estimate could shift more than 1.5 percent.

That means that we currently show a wider race between Trump and Clinton than do simple averages, such as the model used by RealClearPolitics. The HuffPost trend line will favor Clinton when the polls have generally favored Clinton and the polls showing Trump ahead ― or within a couple of points ― appear to be deviations. The model would be similarly sticky on a Trump lead if the polling fairly consistently pointed toward the GOP nominee

I generally use both of them when I try to get an idea of where the race is.

[Mass]

4. Both have their own problems.

RealClearPolitics is very straightforward, using polls as they are and averaging them. You can argue what polls they chose, which polls enter in the window they choose, but the calculation is clear.

HuffPoll is more complex, but also more opaque. The smoothing algorithm they use has a lot of influence on their results.

So, RealClearPolitics is more subject of variations with ONE single poll, but HuffPoll is slower to acknowledge change. For me, it is more or less a wash. If you understand polling, you should be able to mitigate these problems.

This said, the Hillary meme that she is nervous would exist with or without RCP. This morning, the WaPo showing her up by 5 in LV in a 4 way-race (and more in RV and in a 2 way-race) focuses on the fact that there is warning signs for her.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-lead-over-trump-in-new-poll-but-warning-signs-emerge/2016/09/10/800dee0c-76c8-11e6-b786-19d0cb1ed06c_story.html

The fact that she is ahead in every poll except the CNN poll should be a warning sign for Trump, I think.

[molova]

6. If both have problems, why is only one cited?

You basically agreed with me.
Plus you said huffPo is more opaque. The only thing you missed was the phrase "I agree that RCP is overhyped by the media".

[Johnny2X2X]

8. There will be movement

Hillary will probably separate some and Trunp might narrow the gap again. That's just normal.

Every time I get nervous I try to think about how freaked out we'd all be if the polls were reversed. This site would be in full meltdown if an A+ rated poll just released showed Trump +8. And we'd all be already beaten down if our only hope was one slightly outlier of a poll that showed her ahead and an LA Times daily tracking poll.

The view of the polls is much nicer from our side and Hillary is starting to dominate the news cycle. She spent August raising money while Trump tried to claw his way back into the campaign. The results are she out raised him by over $50 Million for August. She has a big cash advantage, a huge ground game advantage and she leads in almost every single poll. Game on.

[Mass]

10. I agree 100 %

[Dem2]

12. RCP is a right-wing site

So I use Huffpo based on my own dislike of the creepy articles that they post there.

[MadBadger]

15. Possibly be different if it was still just pollster.com

[Joe the Revelator]

16. Because Huffpo is about as credible as Brietbart?