Today's polls show that the Kerry Wall has held

[Loki Liesmith]

That is a massive advantage for Democrats in this election and going forward. If the last two weeks didn't breach that wall, I don't think that much can.

[kstewart33]

1. Loki, showing my ignorance here, but what is the Kerry wall? nt

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Set of states that Kerry won.

251 electoral votes.

Basically it seems we can't fall below that in electoral contests. Makes winning much easier.

[Wounded Bear]

4. Based on the Electoral College...

that refers to the pretty much solid Dem states that always vote blue and have voted blue in most recent elections. Right now that represents about 240 of the 270 needed for Clinton to win.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. hmm....did we lose 11 EV votes from blue states since then?

Gotta make more blue babies.

[Wounded Bear]

9. I was just estimating...

and I don't hearken back to the Kerry election very often. IAE, we're still in good shape, that's the important part.

[trof]

14. Um...'blue babies' ain't good.

Congenital heart defect.
I know that's not what you meant, but...

[Wounded Bear]

2. I thought it was an Obama wall...

Yeah, we're still sitting on a base EV tally around 240. Clinton has about 300 ways to win this, Trump has one or two.

Not to be an anti-concernist, but things are not that bad overall. I do stil want a really decisive win, though. Anything less than 350 might make me feel a bit disappointed.

[NCTraveler]

5. Why do I love polls so much?

Because of the analysis people provide from them. It's a full days worth of entertainment.

[redstateblues]

7. We should call it something else-Kerry lost

I realize it is positive but it just doesn't sound good.

[Loki Liesmith]

8. I'm just using Josh Marshall's term

It's also the set of states Kerry won. I think he deserves that much credit at least.

[Sugarcoated]

10. So you're not concerned today?

[Loki Liesmith]

11. Haven't been concerned all election

My model (which I update and post about weekly) consistently has Hillary at 65-85% of a probability of win.

That's a heavy favorite.

I would prefer a 330 electoral vote win to a 273 vote win. But I don't see many plausible scenarios where she falls below 273 votes.

[Loki Liesmith]

12. Does this "concern" you

9/11/update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

[triron]

13. Sam Wang

has hrc win prob. back at 80% (from 79 yesterday).

[triron]

15. New NYT/Sienna

poll in North Carolina has HRC +2 head to head plus early voting going well for her.