Ohio poll: HRC: 40% Trump: 37%

[book_worm]

Last edited Mon Sep 26, 2016, 06:14 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary Clinton holds a narrow, 3-point lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, 40 to 37 percent, with 8 percent of voters supporting Gary Johnson, according to a new poll of likely voters released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary

Several key trends underlie the battle for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. The poll shows a more consolidated base of partisan support
for Hillary Clinton, as 85 percent of self-described Democrats back her, while just 70 percent of Republicans side with Donald Trump. Fourteen percent of Buckeye State Republicans back a non-major party candidate (10 percent support Johnson), compared to just 4 percent of Democrats who do the same. There is also a large gender gap as Clinton leads by 16-points among Ohio women (47 to 31 percent), and trails Trump by 12-points among men (32 to 44 percent). When combining education and gender, the differences are even more pronounced as Clinton leads Trump by 21-points among college educated women, but trails Trump by 15-points among men without a college degree.

https://www.scribd.com/document/325387759/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Poll-Ohio-Statewide

The TargetSmart William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. In total, the poll reached 821 registered Ohio voters. As weighted, 580 online interviews were conducted from September 15-20, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 241 telephone interviews were conducted from September 20-22, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. Results were weighted by TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, and media market to match the demographic characteristics of registered voters in the state. A second round of weighting was employed to derive a sub-sample of “Likely Voters.” Weights that resulted from the first round of weighting were multiplied by each respondent’s TargetSmart 2016

General Election Turnout score, as expressed as a value between 0.0 and 1.0. As weighted, the “Likely Voter” sample consists of 652 respondents. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an
ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. No margins or sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interview

[kevin881]

1. I sincerely hope so...

[MoonRiver]

2. Awesome!

Ohio is in play again! Pundits be damned!

[triron]

3. What a great string of polls lately

[mdbl]

4. so 37% of Ohio is mentally ill?

Would have to be to vote for Trump

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. Sample size is 100

[LenaBaby61]

7. Sample size is 100.

Oh my, 100 people polled?

Moving right along now

[book_worm]

9. here is the methodology

The TargetSmart William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. In total, the poll reached 821 registered Ohio voters. As weighted, 580 online interviews were conducted from September 15-20, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 241 telephone interviews were conducted from September 20-22, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. Results were weighted by TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, and media market to match the demographic characteristics of registered voters in the state. A second round of weighting was employed to derive a sub-
sample of “Likely Voters.” Weights that resulted from the first round of weighting were multiplied by each respondent’s TargetSmart 2016
General Election Turnout score, as expressed as a val
ue between 0.0 and 1.0. As weighted, the “Likely Voter” sample consists of 652 respondents. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an
ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. No margins or sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interview

[LenaBaby61]

6. So 37% of Ohio is mentally ill?

Or racist.

While I KNOW not every white person in Ohio is racist, I have a neighbor who has relatives living near Cincinnati, and she said they're some dumb, ignorant racist POS. She said several of her older relatives who are now deceased used to be season ticket holders to Red's games, and that they used to know, dine with love and worship the late Marge Schott and her husband.

[Doctor Jack]

8. Clinton up by 3 in Ohio...Cue Nate Silver to tell us why that is bad

[femmocrat]

10. On MSNBC this morning....

some news guy interviewed three women in a Walmart parking lot. They were all registered republicans, but I think only one said she was definitely voting for trump. Not one was for Hillary, however. Are "Walmart moms" the new "soccer moms"?