2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum***The Wheels are Coming Off*** LANDSLIDE
Last edited Sat Oct 8, 2016, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)
Hi everyone - I sent this out one week ago, and many of you thought I was wrong about the coming CLINTON LANDSLIDE. How about now? Original post below this line
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Three Strikes and Your Out (Curiel, Khan, Machado),
Rats Deserting the Sinking Ship (too many Republicans to count),
..cliche after cliche...but they all fit.
This week will be the one we all remember: Trump's debate fiasco, followed by his increasingly unhinged and downright bizarre behavior. The week that caused millions of republicans to cringe, gasp, and with the election just weeks away finally realize the threat we were under. No, not all, or even a majority of them. But enough to cause the CLINTON LANDSLIDE news to spread around the planet on November 8. (No, not the 9th, the sheer magnitude of Hillary's victory will be apparent well before midnight eastern time on election day)
It's legacy time for those with a conscience, and survival time for many others. No matter how they are motivated, we'll see republican defections accelerate in the days and weeks ahead, creating space for the moderates (ok, not moderates, but at least those with a brain who actually use it) to get out while they can. IMO a 20-30% republican defection is likely, and a 40 state victory.
My only question at this point is coattails. Will the landslide take us to 53-55 seats in the senate, or even create a house majority? What about down ballot in your state?
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)No House majority, though. Our efforts should be, of course, trying for gains in 2018, but ultimately plotting where to allocate resources in 2020 to retake statehouses during a Census and re-apportionment year.
That would be a genuine revolution.
Chasing Dreams
(415 posts)that suggested the state party had been wholly hijacked by ultraconservatives. Individuals were being ostracized and run out of office for even communicating with democrats.
We've got to keep the pressure on and marginalize these alt-right lunatics.
madaboutharry
(40,245 posts)There are a lot of stupid people in this country. A lot of people with darkness in their heart. And a lot of others with Hillary Derangement Syndrome.
LeftRant
(524 posts)I think it's largely the usual GOP base at this point but there's certainly a more disturbing level of crazy this time (excepting Palin).
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Far too many will vote for Trump because they hate Hillary and they hate Hillary because Bill repeatedly rubbed their nose in it for eight years. They will never forget or forgive.
Chasing Dreams
(415 posts)And I don't disagree. There's tens of millions of em and they'll vote R.
But I fully expect Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, and maybe even W to jump ship. And many others. Now, I don't have a lot of respect for these folks. But what matters in a potential landslide is what their supporters think. This is how the tidal wave happens.
Add to that the horrible few days Gary Johnson has had, the Millennials are coming home.
It only takes a few million of us on the margin to turn victory into a landslide. Well See
Chasing Dreams
(415 posts)Just wondering...thanks
relayerbob
(6,561 posts)Little hope for major changes in the House from Georgia, but a reasonable chance with Barksdale.
LeftRant
(524 posts)BassMazter2016
(88 posts)unblock
(52,486 posts)51-49 is possible but rather unlikely.
anything more is really not in the cards.
and forget about the house. that ain't happening until 2022, when the new census takes effect
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Grappling with the fact that this should be the most lopsided election since at least Johnson-Goldwater -- yet Hillary will not defeat Trump by a margin larger than Obama-McCain, and likely not larger than Obama-Romney.
Grappling with the fact that we're unlikely to take the Senate by more than a razor-thin 50-50 split.
Grappling with the fact that they will still have the House, the majority of governorships, and the majority of state legislatures.
Grappling with the fact that they're poised to come roaring back in 2018, as they did in 2014 and 2010.
Hillary's going to be fine. The Democratic Party, however...