2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI predict a surge toward Clinton in the final 48 hours.
She will be ahead but say 3 to 5% and then gain another 2 or 3% as the undecided lock in. I just don't think a lot of undecided will be able to vote for him when they get inside the booth and really think about what a fucking nut case, scum bag he is and what he could do to foreign relations and everything else.
This is not a typical election. Trump is deeply flawed and while things usually tighten at the end I think we may see just the opposite in this case. Not to mention I think people afraid of Trump will be extremely motivated to vote and independents who may lean Trump but not care for how he acts, just might stay home in pretty high numbers.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)Tho truly, I don't even get why he has any votes.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)so here it goes, Trump is in Carter's place (note that this is not a personal comparison since Jimmy Carter has integrity and has done so many great things or this world) and HRC in Reagan's place. It seems to be in each respective case, the public is not happy with Carter/Trump. They are looking for a reason for rejection. Carter/Trump have a similar poll problem, their ceiling is in the low 40's. Reagan/HRC keep moving up and down. If things play out as they did in 80's, a last minute surge will occur for HRC allowing to win in a landslide. 10 points + is not impossible. 20 is sadly not going to happen, though it should.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,001 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)It will be very close. There are states that HRC has no chance of winning. A 44 state landslide is no longer possible.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Looking forward to this election being over and HRC being POTUS.
PATRICK
(12,228 posts)simply because the electorate is in large numbers disgruntled one way or another. But not totally stupid. If a left winger can rationalize voting for Trump then they supplant the other morons on the right as champions of that perverted thinking.
Anything else will be fraud.
Chasing Dreams
(415 posts)We are already up by 3 to 5%, and the bottom is falling out of the trump campaign. And I'm not worried about an October Surprise. Every day brings another unbelievable, negative Trump revelation.
We'll be up 5 to 7% by election day. Yes, the indies and many moderate republicans stay home, or come our way in the end as Clinton races to an 8 to 10% victory, a Democratic Senate, and a much closer house than anyone thinks will happen.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Hillarys lead won't grow...trump not attracting new voters...his junkyard dog style doesn't resonate with white educated female voters
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)We live several hundred miles apart so only see each other once every 2-3 months or so. Last July he was a Trump guy. So we stopped talking politics and kept it on football, fishing and hunting.
Saw him last week. He is voting for Hillary.
radius777
(3,635 posts)matters in those final hours.
Team H/Dems just need to follow through with the gameplan, not take anything for granted, keep up the pressure.
There will be rocky points (Trump won't go down without unloading any/all dirt he has, Wikileaks, etc.) between now and election day, but as long as Dems stand strong and deal with it properly, H will be madame president.