***Quinnipiac State Polls: NC, PA, FL, OH***

[piechartking]

North Carolina

Clinton 46, Trump 43, Johnson 7

Pennsylvania

Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5

Ohio

Trump 47, Clinton 42, Johnson 6

Florida

Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 5

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384

[Adrahil]

1. Not bad, though PA is closer than I would like. NT

[geek tragedy]

5. very unlikely her lead in FL is bigger than in PA nt

[Adrahil]

13. Well, If I had to chose one over the other...

I'd take FL with its 29 EVs over PA with its 20.

But I want both!

[redwitch]

40. You will get your wish.

She is going to crush him.

[underpants]

2. QPP tends to understate Hillary and overstate Trumbpass

Correct?

[piechartking]

4. For this cycle, I think you're right.

538 will adjust.

[NewJeffCT]

20. yes, they've been skewed to Trump

since the beginning.

[geek tragedy]

3. Ohio is a hood ornament this year. No longer a swing state.

Joins Missouri and Iowa in that regard.

Really bizarre to see such a consistent spread between Ohio and Michigan/Pennsylvania. I know slightly different demographics, but Trump polls 6 points higher in OH, that's massive.


Also weird to see a bigger lead in FL than in PA.

[beachbumbob]

7. I would not quit on Ohio too early...depends on Hillary ads on

Trumps disinterest in saving the automotive industry in 2009....many trump sound bites. Besides the GOTV effort that democrats can launch..

[geek tragedy]

10. Clinton isn't quitting there, she's campaigning there today

But, right now it's looking like it's outside the MoE there, which likely means a GOTV effort wouldn't make the difference.

Good news is if she wins FL and NC, then Ohio isn't terribly relevant.

[beachbumbob]

12. Ohio direction can change...remember trump is trump...and

Hillary was awesome in her speech today....can't write off Ohio...too many people that can be put off by trump

[geek tragedy]

15. I'm not really in a position to write it off, but if I had to bet money

I'd call the EC for Clinton 322-216, still a substantial win, with Ohio and Iowa going D to R and NC going from R to D.

[underpants]

8. Ohio's a coin toss

But they have to spend money and time there.

[geek tragedy]

9. have seen nothing to indicate coin toss, Trump consistently ahead there outside MoE nt

[progressoid]

18. Ugh.

Here in Iowa, its maddening. I am stunned at the voters here. This state is regressing.

[geek tragedy]

21. I think Iowa has been trending R, but just really liked Obama

but really dislike Hillary (even the D primaries were tough sledding for her)

[progressoid]

23. Ernst, Grassley, Branstad, King, etc.

Its fucking depressing.

[Bigredhunk]

46. Yup

& throw in Blum locally for me.

Vomitorium.

[Eleanors38]

29. Fast-growing state, people from everywhere (including the USA). Obama. Twice.

[RonniePudding]

6. Ohio is still bringing the dumb

Lots of angry uneducated white nationalist folk who think he's going to bring the jobs back.

Sad.

But I still think there's enough intelligent people there for her to win the state.

[liberal N proud]

51. There is a lot of West Virginia in Ohio

[Maru Kitteh]

55. Just read the book Hillbilly Elegy, talks about migration from WV & KY to Ohio

very interesting read.

[clutterbox1830]

11. I'm still not giving up on Ohio just yet, but

Since Ohio is moving closer to R, I think it would be wise for Hillary to invest more heavily into Arizona. I can see Arizona moving over to D if the Latino turnout is high. Hopefully, early voting will counteract the effects of voter suppression. I think this is a rime candidate to expand the map.

[Charles Bukowski]

14. It's hard to believe Obama carried Ohio twice

given their current love affair with a bigot.

[helpisontheway]

16. Trump needs Florida. If she can hold PA and take Florida game over. Nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. I've been eagerly awaiting a post-debate Ohio poll. UGH!

Good news elsewhere, at least.

I'm embarrassed by Ohio right now! All I can do is vote.

[Charles Bukowski]

19. According to this poll, Ohio voters say HRC won the debate by a 50-24 margin

yet Gump actually increased his lead from a month ago.

An oddball result for sure.

[geek tragedy]

24. the trend lines are weird--OH and PA each moved a point towards Trump, NC a point towards Clinton

and Florida +5--embargo violation+Machado playing worse there than in other places?

[Eleanors38]

34. People lose their history in stereotypes. In the early 50s in Florida I heard...

The clink of horseshoe games in Hillsborough Stste Park (Tampa, et al). I told my 95-yr-old Mom I was going to follow the trails along the Hillsborough River to find that old Cracker past-time. I did, after passing to cricket games and a volleyball match. Always smething shifting big in that state, beneath the Spanish moss.

[GulfCoast66]

54. I love Hollsborough River state park

The wife and I have been to over 120 FL state parks. I would live to have seen Florida in the 50's. Must have been lovely. I moved here in the early 80's. And it is still lovely, but you have to get way beyond the ever growing cities.

[Eleanors38]

59. Some memories: Driving a state 2-lane paved in snow white shell, car passing every 5 mins.

Highways, winding through green cow pastures and moss-draped oaks in miles-long de facto parks, intermission at the drive-in wth silent flashing cloud mountains beyond the black rectangle, rushing from the old '55 Chevy, full-sprint toward the Atlantic, listening to ducks flying over, making the noise of distant jets and leaving a vapor trail, fog clinging to the ground, no more than 3" over it. Pulling carfish out of Prairie Creek, River Styx, and Cross Creek, and as always to this day, the secondary road leading from Micanopy, past an Antebellum cemetary, past Paynes Prairie, winding gracefully before more dense oaks, clothed in moss streaming in the breeze, enough to put you to sleep.

Old Folks at Home.

[SCliberal91294]

22. I am interested

In an AZ and GA poll right now too.

[Democrats Ascendant]

30. Me too!!

It's been a long while since new pops out of there....

[MyNameIsKhan]

25. I do not buy Ohio Poll, I would say Hillary is 2-3 points up

Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton will produce winning numbers

[Buckeye_Democrat]

38. Two of my older siblings (and their spouses) who are staunch Republicans...

... aren't going to vote this year because they think Trump is a racist idiot. (They still won't vote for Hillary, though.)

That's anecdotal, but I still thought polling would reflect their attitudes.

[etherealtruth]

56. That's my experience "up here" in Michigan ... but I live in urban suburban Metro-Detroit

The rural areas seem to have a lot more support for the short fingered vulgarian

[Buckeye_Democrat]

57. I live in a suburb of Dayton.

The Republican siblings are one county away in John Boehner's area.

I've worked alongside other people from that area over the years, so it was entertaining to hear them say, "Romney will win! I haven't met anyone from my neighborhood voting for Obama!"

Regardless, those two siblings say they won't vote for Trump. It gave me hope until I saw this damn poll. Ohio could still go blue, though.

[book_worm]

26. I hope Ohio will come back to their senses.

[smorkingapple]

27. Once OH loses the "we determine the election" halo, they'll come back to D column

They've worn that proudly. Once it's gone and they realize they're now just another state, they'll wanna be back on the winning team

[Buckeye_Democrat]

31. I hope so, but it didn't work for Missouri that way. n/t

[Mass]

28. MOE of Ohio is 4.4 % (Same for each poll)

However, I am not familiar with Ohio population, but does it make sense that the percentage of Hispanics among likely voter is only 1% (less than in PA and NC which is 5%)?

[MyNameIsKhan]

32. 4-5% loss means 130k votes, it is not possible

Repub Ceiling is 2.7 Mil votes which means HRC looses by 350k votes based on Obama 2012 win... Impossible, this is like 8 point loss

[geek tragedy]

36. that's assuming generic candidates. Trump is not a generic Republican, he's turning off some

Republican leaners (suburban women with college degrees) but attracting working class white men who might otherwise vote Democratic.

What's helping him in OH is killing him in VA and NC.

[MyNameIsKhan]

47. Still 8% movement is unheard off, this can only be possible if HRC looses black votes

Which happened in Bush vs Kerry...

Even if white Dem voters are going for Trump, the swing of 350k votes cannot be explained. Obama won 2012 with good margin like 180k votes... So there is enough cushion, Yes I agree the win will be in 1-2% either side but not what pollsters are reporting.

[geek tragedy]

48. I agree Trump is ahead by around 2%

That is consistent with the polling.

[MyNameIsKhan]

49. Agree but Selzer has applied 2004 LV model and QU came today with 5 points

There are not that many votes in Ohio that can move from D to R or Lib or Green. Repubs max has been 2.71Mil votes in 2008 and 2012. The anomaly of Bush was when he crossed 2.8Mil votes and that was due to Black votes (Evangelical ???). The population increase is 1.3% and mostly Black, asian and Latino. So not much have changed in Ohio from 2012 and whatever has favors HRC.

Trump can only win if our turnout is depressed (less than 70% turnout in Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton) and increase in white voters which is somewhat visible but turnout will be depressed is not seen yet, there is a establish GOTV machine. Further, There is enough cushion to handle white voter excitement, I would say that is about 150k votes.

Math is complex, Trump needs to get more that 150k votes more than in 2008 and 2012 to win OR our enthusiasm is depressed and we crossover in middle, but no way this is 5-8% race as pollsters are reporting.

[geek tragedy]

50. Ohio is usually closer than polls show.

Polls showed Obama further ahead than the actual margin wound up being.

OTOH even modest leads in Ohio tend to be very durable.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

33. The Hispanic population is pretty low in Ohio.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Hispanic_and_Latino_population

2010 census:
PA: 5.7%
NC: 8.4%
OH: 3.1%

[bigbrother05]

35. Think Ohio is a hangover from the primary

HRC was late to the economic message and Trump has played the manufacturing/trade cards to his advantage in spite of the cognitive dissonance.

[geek tragedy]

37. Clinton won the primary in OH by double digits nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

39. From the link...

"In some states, figuring why one candidate is doing better than the other takes some head scratching, but not in Ohio. Trump's 19-point lead among independent voters tells us almost all we need to know. Secretary Clinton must close that gap to come back in the Buckeye State," Brown said.

[TonyPDX]

41. or the Independents need to get a clue

[Buckeye_Democrat]

42. I hope Ohio doesn't have a large number of "Bernie or bust" independent voters.

I'm still trying to understand why Ohio independent voters are so much in favor of Trump according to that poll!

Some independent voters protested Ohio's closed primary months ago:
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/05/independent_voters_protest_ohi.html

Bernie polled much better than Hillary among independents here, as I recall. They surely don't think Ohio's closed primary was "rigging the system," I hope! We've had closed primaries for as long as I remember.

Maybe Bernie should be campaigning for Hillary in Ohio? I don't really know if there's a large number of bitter Bernie supporters here, though. I'm still searching for clues.

[Cryptoad]

44. Our Ground Game in Place

and their lack of any Ground game is worth 10 + for HRC

[NoMoreRepugs]

45. to me the takeaway is that a great number of my fellow citizens are F$%#IN' IDIOTS

[Motley13]

52. Hill has Lebron James

he'll bring in Ohio

[okieinpain]

53. The question now is

Can Hillary close the deal on the next debate.

[MoonRiver]

58. Why is that even a question?

[okieinpain]

60. Because it's the clintons. N/t.