LA Times Poll: Clinton takes the lead in Trump's favorite national poll

[Democat]

Clinton: 44.4
Trump: 44

http://cesrusc.org/election/

This poll is heavily biased toward Trump and it's the poll that Trump often uses to prove that he's winning.

[FreeState]

1. That's amazing given its history

[Norbert]

2. If Trump being edged out in this poll

I can only imagine he is close to or over double digits behind Hillary on most of the upcoming legit polls.


lol tRUMP is

[underpants]

3. Agreed. This is like someone in his bubble telling him NO

[grossproffit]

4. Some are going to be sad.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

5. The people polled all live in Camarillo State Hospital.

Notice how they never mention that.

[Cha]

6. lol

[aaaaaa5a]

7. I just want everyone to understand this is not a true poll.

The LA Times Poll is a survey. At the beginning of this process, they selected a pool of potential voters. They then go back to the SAME voters repeatedly and ask for their opinion on the race. They then post the results as a poll.

This number showing Clinton in the lead comes from THE EXACT SAME PEOPLE who gave Trump the lead for weeks.

I don't know how they get away with calling it a true poll. Its not. Its a survey of the same people repeatedly to determine how their thoughts change through time about the Presidential race.

[GopherGal]

8. I wouldn't say it's not a true poll but...

The fact that they poll the same people over and over means that if there's any thing odd in their sample, the bias is constant throughout the repeated polling. The upside of that is that keeping the sample the same gives you a cleaner look at the change with time.

According to the NY Times, they appear to have gotten an outlier in the sample, a 19-year-old black male Trump voter in Illinois, and they have some unusual methodology that serves to exaggerate the effect.

[link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0|