538's Polls-Plus right now is unreal.

[apnu]

NC is a lock, FL is a lock, NV is a lock. IA flipping. OH solidifying for Hillary. AZ rising fast to meet Hillary.

Overall Hillary has a 83% chance of victory on Silver's most conservative and weighted model.

Get out the vote people! Make it a party!

[BlueCaliDem]

1. And while we're at it, don't forget to vote for DEMOCRATIC Reps and Senators! eom

[NewJeffCT]

5. Yes, if Clinton can win by at least 8 points

statistics show that it would put the House in play.

[iandhr]

2. GOTV

Do you want to tempt the wrath from high atop the thing?

[TeamPooka]

44. this GOTV

[Farmgirl1961]

3. Let's not forget about the Senate

n/t

[awake]

4. And House!!!

[turbinetree]

22. And at the state and local levels, we need to take back some state governor and legislatures

up to and including school boards, and other small town government functions

That's were the Art Popes and the David and Charles Koch crowd ar putting there resources and this would include university are trying to use the education system to put these young adults out there to implement and spew misinformation, that is not paranoia but a a fact look no further that Mercatus

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/08/30/covert-operations


http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/10/spreading-the-free-market-gospel/413239/

[Beartracks]

30. THIS!! Politics is (primarily) local!

===============

[turbinetree]

31. Yes it is

and the voters should really look at what these "local" politicians have been doing and saying, they also can't have it both ways, and the voters should go up to these people before they go into vote and ask them the "republican platform" or the Democratic platform.

A lot of them back the two guys" and what Ryan and McConnell want to do, because they have and are doing it at the local level,
Couldn't agree more

[BlancheSplanchnik]

46. Yes yes yes!!!!

So important!!!

[turbinetree]

48. The U.S. Supreme Court is at stake...................

[BlancheSplanchnik]

49. Sure is.

So important!

[Orsino]

6. Clinton 87.1%

I noticed Arizona has flipped again.

[apnu]

9. That's "polls-only" She's now up 83.2% on polls-plus. (nt)

[Alexander]

7. Not sure why they don't show Utah being closer, or why McMullin isn't included in Utah's model.

He's clearly doing very well there, so I'm baffled as to why his name isn't included.

[mjjoe]

42. He will be added

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-post-debate-polls-show-trump-still-in-big-trouble/

Relevant text:

Another unsightly number for Trump came from a Y2 Analytics poll of Utah, which you may remember as the state that Mitt Romney won by 48 points. It showed Trump tied with Clinton at just 26 percent of the vote, with the independent candidate Evan McMullin at 22 percent and the Libertarian Gary Johnson at 14 percent. We’re going to be adding McMullin to our model in Utah — give us a day or two on that. But in the meantime, we could also really use another poll or two of Utah to confirm or contradict this result. Although polling there in the spring sometimes showed a tight race, Trump pulled ahead by margins ranging from 7 to 15 points in a series of Utah polls in August and September. If McMullin is really polling in the 20s, however — and taking most of his voters from Trump — he could create an unpredictable finish.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. All time high

All time high on 538 and it's climbing quickly.

Trump is finished. The Senate is ours, let's work on the House.

[SCantiGOP]

10. 3 facts:

1- Trump voters are super-motivated and will turn out to vote;
2- He cannot get above 40-45% of the registered vote, which would equate to a landslide;
3- Therefore, the only way we could lose is a massive fatigue on the part of our voters who are convinced the election is over, so they don't need to vote.

We are still going to need an inspired and motivated GOTV effort. He could lose by historic margins, which will destroy any narrative about the election being rigged, and will inspire the GOP to finally confront and eject the Tea Party/Trump faction.

[randome]

11. That's okay. When they show up to vote on Nov 28th, we can give them a gift basket or something.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]

[reACTIONary]

35. +10!

[forkol]

43. I recommend a nice Christmas basket of fruitcake.

They will really enjoy that, would go along well with their other fruitcakes, and they will probably will be tired of (the) turkey by then.

[apnu]

14. Yes sir! All of those are correct.

GOTV!

[rug]

39. 4-When they get behind the curtain they'll play with themselves and forget to vote.

[SunSeeker]

12. K & R

[George II]

13. Each of those three models have her getting more than 330 electoral votes, too.

[rtracey]

15. STOP

STOP SAYING LOCK.....nothing is a lock until Nov 9, 2016..... I mentioned this in an earlier post, it's great to say it, feel it, live it, breath it, but we MUST DO IT......we need to make sure PEOPLE GET OUT AND VOTE, BECAUSE WE KNOW THE TRUMP SUPPORTS ARE....

GET OUT THE VOTE.

[apnu]

16. I am badgering my personal circle to show up at the polls.

I make it loud and clear: Show up on election day and cast your lot, otherwise you're giving up on democracy. We are at our best when the population takes part in the process. Less voters mean more wackos like Trump getting elected.

[Persondem]

17. Need to keep an eye on the Senate. Life will be a whole lot easier for #45 if

the Senate flips to Blue. It's coin flip now.

[apnu]

18. I created a Senate thread, it has sunk like a stone.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512501529

I gave it a kick, but still.

[tclambert]

19. I just checked fivethirtyeight.com again and Nate shows Arizona in light blue.

He has Arizona leaning toward Hillary by a fraction of a percent. In Florida, she's +4, Ohio +2.6, North Carolina +3, Iowa +1.5. Out of all the battleground states, Trump still leads in only Georgia, by +2.6.

It says Hillary is likely to win the electoral vote by 150.

[Coolest Ranger]

24. Holy cow light blue

seriously. Come on GOTV

[INdemo]

20. The problem I see is that the 83% chance could cause those lazy

Democrats to stay home and possibly think " Hillary doesn't need my vote"
This is a huge challenge for volunteers to get out the vote.

[whatthehey]

28. Anybody following wonkish sites that closely knows the GOTV deal though.

[redstatebluegirl]

21. Get out and vote and make it a sweep! If we get all three we can make real change!

[murielm99]

23. Don't forget Wisconsin and Illinois.

Duckworth and Feingold.

[workinclasszero]

25. GOTV democrats!!!

We need more than just the presidency to affect real change in this country!

[Moostache]

26. How or why Trump has more than the lunatic fringe 10% er's is beyond me (n/t)

[50 Shades Of Blue]

27. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS! I live in the dark bluest of blue states. But I can't wait to vote for Hillary!

[calimary]

29. Maybe the Democratic "11th Commandment" should be "Thou Shalt NOT Get Complacent

on Election Day"!

[Raster]

32. WE NEED THIS ELECTION TO BE A BLOWOUT...

...of Biblical proportions. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that the Presidency of Hillary Clinton is the will of the people. There should also be some epic ass kicking for the shoddy, racist, unpatriotic way the rethuglicans treated President Barrack Obama. They were a complete and utter disgrace.

FORTY YEARS OF WANDERING IN THE POLITICAL DESERT!

[cynatnite]

33. *THIS* n/t

[annabanana]

34. YES! THIS! They must be shown,

in no uncertain terms that they do. not. represent. this. Country.

They probably will not believe they lost. But they will have been discredited enough to push them the hell of of center stage.

Nothing less than a blowout will do. Otherwise we'll have to be fretting about this crowd for a generation. Or two.

[Raster]

37. tRump and his surrogates are already trying to game the system...

...by stating that if they lose, it will be a because the election was fixed. We need to make sure EVERYTHING: Every poll and every indicator points to a blowout before the election, and then we need a massive blowout that throws water on the "fixed election" dodge. I would love to see massive exit polling to further confirm lawful election results.

[unitedwethrive]

36. Absolutely!

[lovemydog]

38. I can't wait to bury that jerk.

I'll be like 'Ding dong the Trump is dead!'

Voting early tomorrow. Whoo hoo!

[Cakes488]

40. We must send a message to the world that we REJECT THIS "MAN"...

I know we will...just like I was so very very proud when Obama won..I said Holy Shit..America just elected a black president....we are really evolving...there is just no way that this Trashpot will win...HE CANNOT WIN.

[raging moderate]

41. With tacos for all!

Let's make it a nationwide Taco Day celebration!

[LynneSin]

45. NOTHING IS A LOCK until November 9th

We need to fight this election like we're 5 points behind. If we slack off now something could happen that could turn things around.

Better safe than sorry!

[Beartracks]

47. Yep. The only poll that matters is the Nov 8 one.

===============

[Tommy_Carcetti]

50. I still want I-95.

Maine to Miami, I want every single mile of it blue.

[greymattermom]

52. Perfect

and Georgia is the swing state now.

[beachbumbob]

51. We still got to get off our asses and vote. Nothing been won yet

[MFM008]

53. WE will vote, some of us have already

Those numbers are still good to see only 26 days before an election.

[Scurrilous]

54. K & R