How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1

There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.

He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump.

And he has been held up as proof by conservatives — including outlets like Breitbart News and The New York Post — that Mr. Trump is excelling among black voters. He has even played a modest role in shifting entire polling aggregates, like the Real Clear Politics average, toward Mr. Trump.

How? He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the biggest polling outlier of the presidential campaign. Despite falling behind by double digits in some national surveys, Mr. Trump has generally led in the U.S.C./LAT poll. He held the lead for a full month until Wednesday, when Mrs. Clinton took a nominal lead.

[LenaBaby61]

1. Link ....

Please

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

4. Ah, shit!

Sorry!

[duncang]

5. googled for link

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0

[TheSarcastinator]

2. as someone who works with many 19-year old males

Please, God, save us from the decisions they make.

[LAS14]

3. Thanks for this! I've been wondering about that poll. nt

[pnwmom]

6. Really interesting. Thanks! n/t

[Democat]

7. One black Trump supporter in Illinois can swing this poll 1% each week?

Great poll.

[Ace Rothstein]

8. He's probably the only black male in his age range.

Then when they weight his answer to represent that specific age/race/gender demo, his response is falsely making it look like Trump has much more of the black vote than every other poll.

Reddit has been joking about this guy for a week or two, they refer to him as Carlton.

[Maru Kitteh]

11. That's what I call the one guy with the high voice on CNN

Paris Dennard

[Democat]

12. How does everyone know this guy exists?

Or is it just a joke on Reddit that one POC must be supporting Trump and throwing the entire poll off?

[Ace Rothstein]

13. I think they release a very detailed cross-tab of their results.

There is literally a 19 year old black guy in Illinois voting for Trump per the poll. He actually hasn't polled in over a week, which is why the poll has moved towards Hillary. I think this has happened a few other times with this poll in the last few months.

[underpants]

9. From what I got from the article, he's an overweight 19 yr. old

Okay maybe i read that wrong

[bettyellen]

10. Let's not body shame people please.