Remember Professor Lichtman's prediction on a Trump victory? Seems Dr. Lichtman

[still_one]

doesn't seem so confident now:

"But, after Trump’s piss-poor debate performance on Monday night, Dr. Lichtman admitted that Trump had suffered a major setback on his path to victory. He claimed that although Trump had a golden opportunity to make himself appear as a “less dangerous candidate”, he instead went on the demean Hillary Clinton, dance around the truth and skirt around his looming tax situation. All of this has the professor questioning whether his system will be right this time around.

Lichtman’s prediction system accounts for popular vote, but does not account for the electoral college, which is what will likely decide who the next U.S. President is. In fact, some states have acted acted as predictors for both Democratic and Republican candidates. For example, no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio, while no Democratic nominee has won the presidency without winning Maryland since 1948. "

https://www.merryjane.com/news/election-prediction-Trump-Clinton

Nate Silver now has Arizona as a light blue

GOTV!!!

[MFM008]

1. Saw that

[bigdarryl]

2. Are you talking about the 2nd debate?

[still_one]

3. It isn't which debate I am referring to, the article implies it is the first debate,

however, it is pretty clear from every poll that the second debate did not help him either.

The article also points out that his assessment is based on the popular vote, and does not consider the electoral college. According to the traditional polls it looks like both the popular vote and the electoral college are not going to be in Lichtman's favor this time

[bigdarryl]

5. I know I have his last 5 editions on his keys

[bigdarryl]

4. Plus Johnson isn't polling double digits on average

From real clear politics right now he's averaging 6.6 percent.I have Lichtmans latest edition on the keys.His 3rd party key qualifies as turning against the party in power if the 3rd party candidate gets 5 percent of the popular vote.His rule of thumb is they must be polling double digit right before election so if Johnson's polling average stays at around 6.6 percent that means on election day he gets 3.3 percent Lightman cuts the polling average in half because normally 3rd party candidates fade as the election gets closer.Plus what if republicans start to vote for Johnson because Trump is a nut? That siphons votes from Trump then what

[still_one]

6. I agree with everything you said, and it appears Dr. Lichtman is also stepping back

from his original view, based on the Black Swan event that is Trump