unless something drastic happens... he can't win

[MissMillie]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Even if he wins all the states that are "in play" he still loses.


Let's hope there's no "October Surprise" that hurts people. THAT would be the biggest disaster.

[dubyadiprecession]

2. I love that song by steam.

Na na na na, na na na na! Hey hey! Goodbye! Goodbye Trump!

[oberliner]

3. Not true

Recent polling shows NH as a toss-up and Ohio as leaning Trump.

He can still take NC, FL, and AZ.

That would do it.

I think Florida will decide the election again.

[MissMillie]

4. I trust Nate Silver... he's been very accurate

He says she has 337 electoral college votes.

AND even if she loses NH, NC, FL and AZ..... she still has 278 electoral votes.

NH is in the bag for Clinton, and FL is more than just a little promising.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[oberliner]

6. Nevada and Iowa

I can see those going either way.

Of course, the most likely scenario is HRC winning (as Nate Silver indicates),

But there are still 14 out of 100 scenarios where Trump wins according to Silver.

[MissMillie]

7. Yeah... I saw that

I'll take those odds.


on edit:

Just went back to fivethirtyeight.com and counted ONLY the bluest of blue states (higher than an 80% chance of winning).

She has 251 with those states.

And Mr. Trump may be competitive in NV (where Clinton is favored to win 72+ percent) , IA, OH, NC, FL (where Clinton is favored to win 73+ percent), and AZ.... but he won't win all of them.

[LisaL]

15. You can trust whoever you want.

What is obvious is that some states are very close. So "he can't win" statement isn't accurate. To say the least.

[ailsagirl]

9. What's with NH??

After all that's gone down the past week, capping it off with our First Lady's passionate speech, it's still not enough to persuade intelligent people to vote for HRC?

UN-believable

[Adrahil]

11. Polls don't reflect recent events yet, really NT

[ailsagirl]

12. Good point. Wonder how long it will take...

I'll keep checking around

[MissMillie]

14. Silver gives NH to HRC

with more than 80% probability

[LisaL]

16. 80% probability is not 100 % probability.

[MissMillie]

18. Of course not

But Silver has a record of being quite accurate. He pretty much nailed the 2012 election.

[geek tragedy]

17. NH is not a toss up.

Clinton is ahead in every poll there.

[Dem2]

5. Never say never

This election is life or death to many of us

[Generic Brad]

8. Even if something drastic happens, he can't win

The dye is cast and he will lose spectacularly.

[Iggo]

10. I think Wikileaks was supposed to be the October Surprise.

Ain't workin' out that way, is it.

[Jamaal510]

13. Assange was right

about one thing: there's an October Surprise, except it had nothing to do with anything from Wikileaks, and it is negatively impacting Trump rather than Clinton.