Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
For those interested, Nate Silver, Justin Wolfers and David Rothschild are debating 538 models
Just to give you a flavor of how Nate is handling the critique:
@JustinWolfers: I'm just going to say this once, but you make some very lazy critiques. Build a model yourself and see how this stuff works.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/790907164181356544
If you don't know the names, Justin is an economist and proponent of predictive markets. David is his former student and now runs PredictWise.
Anyway, the whole show (Still ongoing as of 10:15) starts here (Click the link, and you can follow the whole convo):
There looks to be something very broken in the 538 “polls only” election model. (1 of a few) cc @NateSilver538
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/790905401772351489