***HRC win probability at 99% per Sam Wang!!** *

[triron]

google Sam Wang

[Farmgirl1961]

1. same as Princeton Election Consortium?

it's about the same it's been for the past couple of days.

[triron]

2. yep

[Coyotl]

10. yep

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Bit too high imo

I think Mid 80s to low 90s plausible. But you can't really price crazy things happening (live boy, dead girl, etc) into the model, so I think it's sensible to leave a buffer zone for low frequency high impact events.

Put more succinctly: just too much uncertainty to get that high.

[Farmgirl1961]

4. I agree -

On his electoral map, Iowa and Ohio are white (50/50). I can't recall how the trendline (sorry) has been going for these two states (from light blue to white?).

[konnie]

7. do not sit this one out

today the unthinkable happened. bundy and his domestic terrorists walked and peaceful protestors were arrested. from Trevon to today America is devolving before our very eyes. this election must be
a tsunami. the tide must be turned or our country will become unrecognizable! this is bigger than just one candidate. this is for the very soul of our nation.

the blatant racism, the violence, the hate, the complicit media, the fascism must be stopped and the
only way we can do that is to end divided government. end the constant drip drip drip of limpuglicant obstruction and get the country back on track for all people. not just white people.

we need to elect a congress that will hold HRC's feet to the progressive fire. We need to show the troglodytes how small a minority they are and send them back into their caves and under their
rocks.

every vote counts in very precinct! even the hopelessly gerrymandered ones. remember JFK was elected by one vote per precinct!

[Coyotl]

9. With such a credible poll, they'll need to reopen the emails inquiry!