Respected F&M poll of Pennsylvania: HRC 49% Trump 38% (Dems lead Senate race by 12)
Clinton has the support of 49 percent of those who say they are certain to vote, to 38 percent for Trump, according to the survey released Tuesday. The remainder were undecided or planning to support a third-party candidate.
This state was always going to be an uphill fight for Trump to win, said F&M polling director G. Terry Madonna. Pennsylvania is simply trending more Democratic than the other big swing states.
In Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate race, the poll finds Democrat Katie McGinty with a 47 percent to 35 percent lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey among likely voters. Her 12-point advantage is larger than in previous F&M polls and also bigger than the average of recent Senate race polls in the state.
The survey is based on live telephone interviews conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 30 with 863 registered voters taken from a commercially available voter list, including 652 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, and for likely voters it is 5.1 percentage points.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/Clinton-up-big-in-PA-says-new-FM-College-Poll.html