It's coming down to NC, FL, CO and NV.

[stevenleser]

This picture shows where we are in the race right now. It's coming down to 4 states, NC, FL, CO and NV. Hillary needs only one of them to win. Trump needs all four. Hillary leads in all of them right now.

Hillary 323
Trump 215

Nevada 6
Colorado 9
North Carolina 15
Florida 29
These total 59.

If Hillary loses those states Hillary has 264 EVs and Trump has 274.
Hillary needs one of those states, Trump needs all four. Thats the election.

[Godhumor]

1. And she won't lose NV, NC or CO

Just time to bring it home.

[Cosmocat]

2. it was tightening to begin with

the Comey hit job put the screws to it a little more.

Ohio probably is a lost cause.

They have to pull out Florida to counter it and get a more decisive win.

538 has Colorado pretty close to being in Hill's pocket.

Neveda and NC pretty much a tossup with a slight lean to Hill.

[writes3000]

7. Nevada is more than a toss up. Hillary has it.

[Cosmocat]

12. I hope!

nm

[Jarqui]

40. From the early voting numbers I've seen

I think she's in very good shape in NV.

I also thought her early voting numbers in Colorado were very strong with 1/3 of the vote in. And when I last looked (before yesterday), I thought she was doing well in NC in early voting.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512565047

If they factored in early voting results with the polls in the models, I think her chances of winning would rise substantially.

Even with this Comey thing, it's really slim that she can lose in my opinion (but don't take my word for it =>GOTV)

[kentuck]

3. I think she has best chance in Colorado...

and second best chance in NC.

If she loses one, she may lose the other? AZ and NV will probably go Trump, in my opinion.

I think her best strategy, and the best strategy for Democrats, may be to build up Evan McMullin in the next week as a logical exception to Donald Trump. If he can cause one or two red states to go blue, that would help Democrats immensely. It is possible he could gain enough votes to sway a couple of states from Trump.

[geek tragedy]

8. McMullin winning states won't help, if Clinton doesn't get 270 and Trump doesn't either

then it goes to House, who will vote in Trump

[kentuck]

11. But he doesn't have to win.

He only has to take enough votes to keep Trump from winning and permitting Hillary to win.

[geek tragedy]

13. Utah's the only state where he has any traction, and Clinton has zero shot there

even with him pulling 30% of the vote. Utah is just that Republican.

[kentuck]

15. But he is on the ballot in quite a number of states.

If Republicans might be looking for an alternative? He doesn't have to win - only keep Trump from winning.

[geek tragedy]

20. he's unknown outside of Utah. he's got the Mormon church supporting him in Utah which

is why he's doing well there.

[whatthehey]

18. How does the risk of a UT I win hurt Clinton?

It hurts Trump, but nobody sane ever had UT as a D possible, so it does fuck all to hurt her path to 270. Why do people insist on thinking red states splitting EVs can harm Dems?

[geek tragedy]

23. point is Utah is irrelevant. Clinton needs to get 270 EVs, and if she doesn't get the EVs from UT

then it doesn't matter if Trump or McMullin wins them.

[whatthehey]

26. UT is ALWAYS irrelevant to Dems. No impact to her EVs whatsoever.

[kentuck]

29. Unless she can slip in and win Utah?

If Trump and McMullin split the Republican vote in such a way that permits her to win the state.

[Godhumor]

9. She already has a 50k early vote firewall in NV--almost exactly the same number as Obama

Last edited Tue Nov 1, 2016, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

At this point in EV.

Jon Ralston, the eminent political reporter in Nevada, who has been analyzing early voting there has already concluded NV is a lost cause for Trump.

[geek tragedy]

30. She has 48K in Clark county, statewide is only 33.5K

Trump needs a major turnaround there, but Republicans won the voting yesterday so people shouldn't get cocky

[Godhumor]

42. Yes, the 48k in Clark is almost exactly what it was in 2012

No one is cocky. I'm just very, very confident on what NV data already shows.

[geek tragedy]

43. As I've said, three most likely number of EVs for Clinton are:

279: (2012 -OH, FL, IA)
294: (2012+NC, -OH, FL, IA)
305: (2012 + NC, AZ, -OH, FL, IA)

And it looks more likely for her to add to the 305 than for her to sink below 279.

It would make the political world seem upside down for a candidate to lose OH and FL but still win over 300 EV. But that's where we are.

[dawg]

4. Georgia may be closer than Ohio.

North Carolina may end up being our safety valve. Virginia is part of our firewall.

Iowa looks like it's going to the dark side.

I find these new re-alignments curious. I wonder how much is unique to this election, and how much is part of an ongoing trend.

[LonePirate]

19. IA seems to have been marching to the red team for a while now, despite Obama's two wins.

I think it is gone from the blue column for years to come. GA, on the other hand, definitely has a blue future in either 2020 or 2024 if it doesn't turn blue this year.

OH seems like it is going to remain a flip flopped for the next few elections. Fortunately, VA's days as a member of the blue firewall are just beginning. Hopefully it can tug NC along with it.

[BeyondGeography]

5. I'd like to thank America for making this far more interesting than it should be

[Cosmocat]

14. RIGHT

we are seriously pulling out hair out going into election day over Donald Fucking Trump?

This country is so fin stupid ...

[geek tragedy]

6. she'll win Colorado, almost certainly Nevada. Probably will win NC, lose Florida

This is going to be a nailbiter, it's not quite too close to call but it's trending that way.

[sunonmars]

10. Nv is Hillarys, lead in clark is getting too big to beat

[blm]

16. Safe state DUers can target GOTV donations to these states and give HRC a Dem Senate.

The fiercest battle is in NC - Trump needs it and Mitch McConnell needs it to keep majority.

Here's NC Dem party link.

http://www.ncdp.org

[exboyfil]

17. Battleground Colorado is bad

It is baked as a win in most projections. NH is probably in more danger.

Also we may lose the 1 EV from Maine. Lose NH and the 1 EV and we are at 268.

[whatthehey]

22. NH in danger? Based on what exactly?

+6 Clinton on average and no trend downward.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Status yesterday - Highlighting trend up or down and last poll result

LIGHT BLUE STATES FOR HILLARY

VA - Gov McAuliffe - Dem - RCP 7.7% - Trending down - Last 4%

PA - Gov Wolf - Dem - RCP 5.6% - Trending down - Last 2%

MI - Gov Snyder - Republican - RCP 6.2% - Trending Up - Last 7%

WI - Gov Walker - Republican - RCP 5.7% - Trending down - Last 4%

CO - Gov Hickenlooper - Democrat - RCP 4% - Trending down - Last 1%

NH - Gov Hassan - Democrat - RCP 5.2% - Trending down - Last 3%

Maine - Gov Republican - RCP 4 - Trending down - Last 1%

[whatthehey]

27. Nope - I provide links

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html

Where's that "down" trend?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. Oh good ! A new poll at 7% reversed it !! great ! When I pulled yesterday

was going down
Emerson 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.9 46 43 6 2 Clinton +3
Monmouth 10/22 - 10/25 401 LV 4.9 46 42 7 1 Clinton +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/20 - 10/24 768 LV 3.5 45 36 10 Clinton +9

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. I know it's Remington - but yesterday RCP put CO in tossup - Has been trending

down. Remington is a pollster founded by GOP strategists

[duffyduff]

36. The race isn't "tightening."

The outcome was never in doubt for one minute.

Sick and tired of these handwringing posts that actually think Trump ever had a chance in hell of getting elected.

[geek tragedy]

38. so tell us, if the outcome was never in doubt, why is Clinton doing so much worse in Florida's early

voting than Obama did?

[William769]

39. Hillary only needs one, but she'll take all four.

[Jarqui]

44. Just to add to this:

Trump has not led in any non GOP leaning poll (R) in NC since mid September
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

Trump has not led in any non GOP leaning poll (R) in NV since late September
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Trump has not led in any non GOP leaning poll (R) in CO since late September
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

For all of those states, while Hillary was leading, about 1/3 of the votes have been cast in early voting.

In the poll of polls in all those states, Hillary is still leading. The Comey email thing has not moved the polls in those states much if at all so far.

Trump isn't even scheduled to go to NV this week (so far)
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

The odds of Trump winning all three of those states, ignoring early voting, is pretty darn slim - about 4%
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
Early voting drops his chances to less than 1 percent in my opinion.

[Awsi Dooger]

46. I hope we don't take New Hampshire and Colorado for granted

I don't fully trust either state. New Hampshire too often follows its own path, with wild results not captured in polling. Colorado still has high percentage of self identified conservatives.

Regardless, the Comey news combined with Republicans naturally coming home have definitely tightened this race. Yesterday there was nonsense here that Comey didn't change anything. Ridiculous. I don't care about an isolated poll or two. I care about common sense. It had to hurt Hillary and downballot, even if it mostly energized reluctant Republicans to oppose Hillary more than it changed preference. The Miami Herald front page headline on Monday said, "FBI Obtains Warrant to Examine Emails." That's the type of thing the public hears. Details don't matter. Warrant is not exactly a friendly word attached to your campaign in the final week.

African Americans don't appear to be motivated. That is devastating when you do the basic math. For every 100 black votes Hillary would net +80 or more. Eighty is conservative. Let's say Hispanics split 70/30 for Hillary. To net the same +80 you would need 200 Hispanic votes. It's hardly an even swap. Increased Hispanic turnout doesn't do us much good if blacks stay home.

In Florida it's even worse because Cubans turn out in high percentage and they won't split 70/30. Closer to 50/50. Other Hispanic blocks will break in huge percentage for Hillary but the overall Hispanic statewide split won't match the national split. Hillary can't win Florida unless African Americans get going.

Nevada is not quite as guaranteed as early reports have indicated. Democrats had a massive early voting surge in the closing days of 2012, expanding the net edge. We need that to repeat in the next four days.