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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum***** BREAKING*****HILLARY LEADS THE ORANGE HUED MUSSOLINI BY FOUR AMONG INDEPENDENTS
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***** BREAKING*****HILLARY LEADS THE ORANGE HUED MUSSOLINI BY FOUR AMONG INDEPENDENTS (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2016
OP
Romney won them by five. If we are tied or slightly ahead among Indies we are golden.
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2016
#3
Online polls don't stop being useless shit when they are good, or even realistic
whatthehey
Nov 2016
#2
You are never going to get a truly random sample with an internet panel.
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2016
#7
molova
(543 posts)1. This is excellent news
It goes against an FBI-induced debacle narrative.
I believe Romney won independents, correct?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)3. Romney won them by five. If we are tied or slightly ahead among Indies we are golden.
BTW, i sense another shift in the race, in our favor.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)2. Online polls don't stop being useless shit when they are good, or even realistic
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)5. Online polls * were some of the most accurate polls in 2012
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/the-most-accurate-polls-of-2012-148876
*Of course this assumes the proper controls are in place to ensure the poll captures what is a random sample.
*Of course this assumes the proper controls are in place to ensure the poll captures what is a random sample.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)6. Well there's a whole lot missing in that statement
Starting with it applying to national final pre-election polls not independent subsets a week out, and also ignoring that they were some of the worst too. And remember, it's the methodology that makes them crap, not the (final save your dignity cherry picked) results. I could probably have a pretty decent guess what the weather will be like in Stockholm next week, but it would have terrible meteorological methodology.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)7. You are never going to get a truly random sample with an internet panel.
But organizations like Pew, yougov, and ipsos reid are doing some good work.
still_one
(92,190 posts)4. Among independs it is 39% Hillary to 35%, that is what Bloomberg just
reported.
mcar
(42,331 posts)8. K&R