Nevada: Clark raw vote lead is now about 50,000, which means it is almost identical to 2012
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
UPDATED, 11/2/16, 5:45 AM
The SOS did not update its site with rural numbers last night, so those have yet to come in. But here's what we know:
The Dems won the urban counties by a net 1,800 votes Tuesday -- 2,200 in Clark and lost 400 in Washoe. So the statewide lead is about 33,000 without the rurals, which means it's probably closer to 32,000.
The Clark raw vote lead is now about 50,000, which means it is almost identical to 2012, although the percentage is slightly less because of the 150,000 additional voters. Washoe is at about 1,900 -- that's six times better what it was at this time in 2012.
What I wrote in 2012 seems apt -- just substitute Donald Trump for Mitt Romney:
There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure.
Bottom line: The next three days are huge, starting with today when Hillary Clinton comes to try to juice the early vote in Vegas. Remember the last day (Friday) is always the biggest. If the Dems can add 10,000 votes to their lead, they will feel pretty good. If they add 20,000, which would bring it to the same number as the end of 2012, it's big trouble for Trump and Senate hopeful Joe Heck, and we can start talking about a mini-wave at least
.