2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum******* BREAKING QUINNIPIAC SWING STATE POLLS - 7.5 on a Democratic Happiness Scale ******
FL: Clinton 46Trump 45
NC: Clinton 47Trump 44
OH: Trump 46Clinton 41
PA: Clinton 48Trump 43
Q is an A rated poll but it has a slight GOP lean.
Don't forget these polls were taking at PEAK COMEY and doesn't factor in our gold plated GOTV machine.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)nt
budkin
(6,703 posts)Thanks for sharing!
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)We will probably lose OH this cycle, but if we get both FL and NC, that's the game.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)Being up in NC and PA alone is enough to deny Le Deplorable Orange the presidency.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)Effing Ohio!
Still, it's mostly "good news" with PA (which is critical) showing a decent spread.
Lefthacker
(264 posts)Now I can get some work done today.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Paging 538...
Norbert
(6,039 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)I believe these polls. Seems about right, even that Ohio result.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)Hill has struggled to get traction in Ohio. I really dont think she gets it.
Florida is and always was going to he close. Any lead is good there.
A 3 point lead is good for NC, Hill being at 47 v 44 for the dolt is good for this race. Same thing w hill being at 48 in pa.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)most polling in the primaries were way off........
they underpolled Clinton by at least 5%
South Carolina, another example, polls had her 63/37....she won 74/26.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)ailsagirl
(22,896 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)I wonder how well one of Hitler's (supposed) clones could do as the GOP candidate? Probably far better than I ever imagined.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Unfortunately as you know, we live in a country where there are a LOT of dumb, ignorant, racist deplorables, who think tRump gives a damn about THEM
ailsagirl
(22,896 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Terrific other than Ohio.
Hillary erred by failing to mention Ohio job loss and solution in any debate while Trump capitalized and made it a priority every time. That was worth more than dozens of campaign appearances in Ohio. Unforced error. I haven't had much hope for Ohio since the debates, unless Hillary held a national margin of 6 points or more.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)I'm not too surprised by Ohio.
I have a friend who has close relatives (1st cousins, uncles, aunts) who live there who STILL think that Pres. Obama is a Muslim not born in this country, and that his birth certificate is fake, and mind you, my friend tells me her relatives have good jobs, live in nice homes, and they go vacationing every year. They're not living under any bridges anywhere fighting for jobs with anybody else.
Now those folks have a modicum of education, and they still think that way? Them thinking like that---now that's what's truly scary. How racism makes people think they way they do
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Ohio is going to be close but trump is heading for a solid defeat regardless
Doodley
(9,089 posts)For comparison Final PPP Polls 2012
FL: Dem + 1 (average all final polls: Rep +1.5) actual result: Dem + 0.9
OH: Dem + 5 (average of all polls: Dem 2.9) actual result: Dem + 3
NC: Dem Tie (average of all polls: Rep: +3) actual result: Rep +2
PA: Dem +6 (average of all polls: Dem +3.8) actual result: Dem + 5.4
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)in the real world.
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)The Blue Wall is clearly safe at this point, and if Trump can't snatch the lead in NC/FL peak-Comey, he's toast.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Better to move on and focus $$$ and time on other battleground states.
There are several other paths to a win.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)underpants
(182,803 posts)There is the math. It's really difficult for a Republican to win a national election. If you take the 2012 results -- Dem 332 Republican 206 and subtract 7 states from the Dem (NV CO NM Iowa VA Ohio and Florida) they still start with 246. They only need to pick up 24 votes to win. 206 is the Repub starting point. In order to get to 270 they'd have to almost run the table on those 7 states needing 54 votes to win. Those 7 states total 86 E Votes.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)We are great shape for the homestretch!!!
kevin881
(465 posts)Chevy
(1,063 posts)Joe941
(2,848 posts)bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)HOW THE FUCK COULD TRUMP HAVE THIS MUCH SUPPORT CONSIDERING HE IS A KNOWN CON ARTIST WHO ADMITS TO GROPING WOMEN JUST BECAUSE HE IS A "STAR"????!!?!?!?!??!
I know why, actually. All he had to say was "I'm going to build a wall." and the racists bigots came crawling to him.
Had he never mentioned "the wall" he would have lost the nomination.
GAAAAAHHHHH!!!
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)He bothers me more than Dumbya, and I didn't think that was possible.
If he somehow wins (and I strongly doubt it), I might move close to Mammoth Cave to have a nearby nuke shelter!