***Q early vote poll results- NC HRC 58 DT 36, Ohio HRC 58 DT 32***

[triron]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

[Dawson Leery]

1. All polls are saying that early voting in NC/NV

have Democrats leading by double digits. We should easily take both states.

[triron]

31. link for NV?

not what I hear from Jon Ralston

[Farmgirl1961]

2. So these are post voting polls?

So how does that square with those who haven't voted? H vs D

[triron]

6. I would assume so.

[Demsrule86]

24. What?

[triron]

3. What's weird to me is that the same polls

had DT up 5 in Ohio. Guess we will see who turns out.

[sunonmars]

4. This is what i said about Ohio - I dont believe he'll win it for one second.

[vadermike]

5. Can

DT make up those margins?

[sunonmars]

7. 2 words that give me confidence on a Clinton big win....

She has an actual "GROUND GAME"

[Dawson Leery]

8. Donnie has nothing in Colorado and Virginia.

How can he even be close without such operations?

[sunonmars]

11. which is why i am not worrying...we all know how this works

unless the money goes out to organizers to get the vote out and has an actual team in place with data to go and physically get those voters to the poll booth. It aint gonna happen.

This is the biggest in your face clue to anybody remotely paying attention.

[Dawson Leery]

32. He does have a 12 year old running his one office Colorado, but anyways....

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/292180-12-year-old-running-trump-campaign-office-in-colo

[Proud liberal 80]

9. So it seems like Clinton voters are really the likely voters

So motivated to vote early

[triron]

10. They also have HRC 48- DT 42 in early vote in Fla.

[FarPoint]

12. I voted early today...

Dayton Ohio... Straight Democratic Ticket!!!!! Hillary at the Top.

[sunonmars]

13. any info about lines, what you think is the mood, feeling.

[FarPoint]

18. Strong Democratic turnout...

Many African Americans...a nice variety men, women.. old, young, white as well...they had about 75 voting machines... steady moving line....this was at 3:30 pm. Montgomery County Board of Elections... downtown.

There were local candidates, Democrats and Republicans with informational tables....Democrats flocking to the Democrats tables.. happy, friendly chatter... republican fella was trying to snag a few Democrats as they walked by...he heard a lot of no thanks...this guy was running for County Commission... funny.

This location is well organized...huge parking garage. Free parking passes after ya vote ....

[sunonmars]

19. Good to hear, none of what we hear from media equates to what people are seeing.....

[FarPoint]

21. You could feel the determination in the voters...

The atmosphere was energized.

[vadermike]

14. Yes

And Romney was ahead in FL by 5 in 2012 We still won and now it's reversed and trump doesn't have near the operation that Romney had

[sunonmars]

16. Trumps ground game is the equivalent of throwing a fly at the windshield of an SUV.

[vdogg]

15. Numbers look similar to Targetsmart poll

Maybe it's not an outlier. Starting to see some confirmation of trend in other states.

[sunonmars]

17. I know....horse race, my ass.

[Dawson Leery]

20. +1,000,000

[Charles Bukowski]

26. The numbers for Ohio look insane

How do they compare to Obama's?

[Drunken Irishman]

27. In a poll from Oct. 24th, 2012, Obama led Romney 60-30 among early voters.

http://swampland.time.com/2012/10/24/time-poll-obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio/

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

He won the state by three-points.

So, Hillary is getting similar numbers, but not quite as strong. Even still, it all really depends on how many people are early voting. If it's down from 2012, then Hillary is on pace to lose Ohio even with those strong of numbers.

[LisaL]

33. Obama ended up winning early voting by 26 points.

So right now Hillary is also leading by 26 points. Of course it all depends on how many people actually end up early voting.

“In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent. "

https://www.thenation.com/article/obamas-ohio-early-voting-advantage/

[Drunken Irishman]

34. Right...and how off this poll is to actual results.

[LisaL]

35. Poll isn't off.

Obama led in early votes. Romney led on election day. It all averaged out to Obama winning by a much smaller margin than his early voting margin.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Poll very well could be off on the margin Hillary is winning early voting.

Which, in a very close state, could be the difference between a narrow election day win or an election day loss for Hillary there.

[LisaL]

37. Well, of course. I am just saying right now she appears to lead by a similar margin Obama did.

That doesn't mean she will win OH.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. No doubt. My only point is that we can't say she'll win because of it.

1) Obama's margins in 2012 were pretty thin. He won the early voting by a big amount but barely won the state - only winning the overall vote by 3 points.

2) We don't know the overall percentage of people who've voted. IF it's the same as 2012, she's in very good position. If it's less, coupled with her not out-performing Obama (it appears) in early voting, she might very well lose the state.

It'd be nice to see the trends, if it's the same as 2012 or even more. But if it's less, we're probably looking at Ohio going to Trump.

[LisaL]

39. Seems kind of a mixed bag.

Two most democratic counties Clinton needs to get huge numbers from to carry OH: Cuyahoga needs to increase turnout, it's still down. Franklin county seems to be doing well.

"However, in Cuyahoga County, the state’s largest and a longtime Democrat bastion, Democrat early ballots overall are down by more than 25 percent compared with the same point in 2012, while GOP returns have increased by 13 percent. Democrats still have cast 32,000 more ballots in the Cleveland area this year, but in 2012 the gap was more than 60,000 at this point."

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

[Drunken Irishman]

42. I'd be very surprised if she wins Ohio at this point...

It feels like it did in 2004 - you might find a poll that has her winning, like with Kerry, but on the whole, Trump leads consistently.

Fortunately, Ohio is becoming more and more irrelevant each political season.

[Demsrule86]

46. Obama only won by what two points as I recall.

I have always believe the ground game saved him.

[Demsrule86]

50. Obama has a small lead in 12...

He only won by about two points.

[workinclasszero]

28. Wow this is great!

[Farmgirl1961]

29. Yes, it looks like her numbers just trail Obama's by a bit

Hope we get regular updates on this to see how the trend continues. I'd also love to see early polling numbers from other swing states.

[karmaqueen]

30. I am working at early voting in NC.

I have been there every day since it started passing out blue ballots.Very good turnout and people enthusiastic, but the day after the FBI bull crap people for Hillary were more determined to vote than ever! I had a Republican lady tell me she asked if she could change her registration from Republican to Independent immediately she was embarrassed by what they were doing. I am seeing energy for Hillary, although the energy on the other side is more obvious. Many of them are being mean & loud, not everyone is mean but some are downright obnoxious and frightening at times.

[sarcasmo]

44. A tad off from the Landline polls, LOL. CNN made a Billion saying it's a close race.

[Demsrule86]

48. This is the 2012 polls just before the election.

[triron]

51. Seems Dems ground games

in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are paying off.