Could someone tell me why internal polls are the most reliable?

[LAS14]

[Raidel]

1. presidential campaigns have more money

so they have bigger sample sizes...just my thought

[jcgoldie]

2. They have info about the voters

As I understand it, it isnt just random samples like public polling. They have access to a lot of information based on previous voting histories. It's a different animal.

[vdogg]

3. They have the state voter files

They literally know where each and every voter is, their party affiliation, and their voter history and thus their propensity to vote. Public polls don't have this.

[LAS14]

5. Do we know why the polling companies don't have this info?

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Money and resources is a major one.

[vdogg]

9. Money. It can cost millions to poll a single state

News organizations just aren't going to be able to afford to poll in that detail in al 50 states. They have to target their resources.

[RAFisher]

12. I know in Florida polling companies have it. It's public data here.

For $5 the Florida Secretary of State will mail you a CD with gigabytes of voter data. Demographics (address,race, age, party) for every single voter in the state and a complete history of every Florida election he or she had voted in. So that's definitely not true in Florida because it's public data.

[OnDoutside]

17. True. My brother is really pissed over that. It's happy days for identity fraud.

[Demsrule86]

18. The campaigns have the most up to date information because

they go out and talk voters...polling Companies are working off the last election.

[Doctor Jack]

4. I think its all about the money they are willing to invest

More money, means more samples taken, more up to date voter info, fewer assumptions they can make, etc. Taking a poll probably isn't a huge money maker for a media company but a campaign can afford to throw money at better quality polls because they don't have to make a profit after.

[futureliveshere]

7. Check out this detailed Op-Ed from Obama's 2012 campaign manager!

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/opinion/campaign-stops/the-election-polls-that-matter.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

[LAS14]

11. Thanks!

[futureliveshere]

14. Anytime.. :)

[grossproffit]

20. Thank you.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. My guess (speaking from a position of zero information on this topic)

is that they have a strong vested interest in getting it right every bit as much as they have a strong vested interest in supporting the candidate.

That said, I haven't a clue how they might sample compared to how other polls might sample.

For what it's worth, I recall seeing something some years back about the 1992 election, and how Bill Clinton's internal polls show he was likely to win. And their exit polls (almost no states had early voting back then) on election were such that by 10 am they knew Bill would win. But they had to play it cool until it was official.

[Fast Walker 52]

19. yes, my understanding is they have more reason for really accurate polls

News outfits just want a story, and closer is better

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Loads of hype

Sure, sometimes you'll nail it. That allows arrogant Op-Eds like the one linked in this thread from Obama's 2012 campaign pollster. We're supposed to be amazed and in awe.

However, that Op-Ed itself demonstrated how absurd the premise was. That 2012 race was Obama's second rodeo, not the first. If Obama's team had already demonstrated that internal polls are the ultimate gold standard and that public polls are mostly laughable, you wouldn't have Obama pulling the chief pollster aside on election eve of his second race and asking what is going on.

Maybe it takes a handicapper to understand that. I also have an advantage because I worked behind the scenes in another profession with tons of aura attached -- sports oddsmakers. The public always wants to believe Las Vegas has some type of mysterious behind the scenes knowledge. Yeah, like frantic phone calls to make sure employees actually show up. Like averaging power ratings to stick a pointspread on the board. Then you sit back and hope somebody outs you on the air, so you can pretend there is indeed a secret sauce.

[marlakay]

13. Also when your canvassing

You ask who people are voting for and send info to campaign.