So....

[Aviation Pro]

...are the vast majority of these polls just utter and complete bullshit?

Yes or no.

I'm throwing the bullshit flag.

[Doctor Jack]

1. No but cherry picking by the media is at an all time high

[0rganism]

3. for civs like me, i'd say polls aren't that helpful now, and it's all about GOTV

there are top-level campaign staff making excellent use of internal polls all the way down to the precinct level. those guys have a job to do, and the good ones know what they're doing and how to make the most use of mountains of very precise but somewhat inaccurate data.

the essence of a poll's predictive power lies in the "likely voter" model applied to the sample. the goal of GOTV is to improve on this model to a candidate's advantage. at this stage, turnout is everything.

at this point, i'd say the publicly available polling is more harmful than helpful -- inspiring complacency or agitation depending on the outlook. if you feel nervous about the elections and you have time on your hands, get on down to your local Democratic HQ and volunteer for GOTV. anything else is a waste of energy.

[vdogg]

4. All the polls have been good for us today.

What are you referring to?

[book_worm]

5. You have to look at the pollster and their track record

I have always been partial, for example, to PPP (Public Policy Polling) because while they have a reputation for being a democratic polling house they are also very solid and don't show any particular in house bias in my opinion.

[citood]

6. No matter who you back, you can find a poll you like right now

They are all over the map.

Of course, they are based on a turnout model...which is based on historical turnout, and the pollster's 'hunch'. And the pollster's seem to differ.