Steve Schale: Notes on the 11th day of early voting in Florida
In meantime, two things: yesterday was really robust, and as a result, and after consulting with Dan Smith from the University of Florida, I am upping my estimate from 9.2 million to 9.5 million. This puts it basically at 08 turnout levels.
On a day that saw 464,000 voters with almost 26% of the votes come in from NPAs, Democrats won the day by about 9K votes, winning narrowly both VBM and EV.
Total Ballots cast: 5,731,761
Total Vote By Mail: 2,370,567 (45%)
Total Early Vote: 2,897.183 (55%)
Democrats: 2,268,663 (39.58%)
Republicans: 2,261,383 (39.45)
NPA: 1,201,715 (20.97%)
Total Margin: GOP +0.13%
Right now, I think about 60% percent of the likely electorate has voted. At the higher turnout rate, I think we will be between 66-67% of likely voters having voted through Sunday. Another way of looking at this – our early vote as of yesterday is 91 more people than voted in all of Pennsylvania in the 2012 election. EV Florida with 2 days to go would be the 5th largest voting state in America.
Additional notes:
The electorate continues to get more diverse. The electorate is now under 67.6% white (67 In 2012), with Black and Hispanic voters continuing to grow in share of the electorate. Yesterday was 61 white to 39 non-whites. There is no question in my mind that the electorate will be more diverse than 2012.
African American turnout hit a 2016 record yesterday, beating the record set each of the two previous days, and Hispanic was 17% of all voters. That is how HRC wins Florida.
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/226530-steve-schale-notes-11th-day-early-voting-florida-2
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