A Bit More Annoyed at 538 Now
I was listening to their podcast, which is usually better than the articles since Harry Enten is usually more willing to call bullshit on the horserace narrative (unfortunately he wasn't on today). However, today they were talking about the early voting numbers and saying democrats were really excited by the news but then they dismissed it as "it feels like a lot of democratic partisans are reacting to that news is giving me, I have to admit, a little bit of similar vibe to the way I saw democrats react to those exit poll numbers in 2004. Any glimmer of hopeful empirical early signs and democrats are rushing to it, maybe chill y'all".
So early voting statistics showing massive hispanic turnout in key states is the same as early leaked exit polls from 2004 showing John Kerry ahead in Ohio. I guess we just need to assume that 538 is right and that its a tie in Nevada. Whatever gets the clicks, I guess 
Quote comes around 20 minutes in
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-countdown-3-days/
= new reply since forum marked as read