Columbus Dispatch: Clinton 48, Trump 47 in Ohio

[sunonmars]

Ground game is gonna win this....

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

The poll results indicate that if the Clinton campaign can get young and minority voters to the polls, she almost certainly will win. And a victory in Ohio would almost certainly end Trump’s hopes for the presidency.

On the other hand, if the Trump team does a better job at getting its supporters to cast a ballot, especially older whites, he probably wins — and maintains a narrow path to prevailing nationwide. The GOP nominee holds a double-digit lead among white males, the poll found.

...............

Clintons ground game is way way better than Trumps which is non existent, if this comes down to ground game, she wins.

[book_worm]

1. Our GOTV efforts are many times better than Trump's.

[LisaL]

2. Older whites are highly reliable voters. Not much GOTV necessary.

[book_worm]

5. Sorry, but in every state the Dems GOTV effort is much stronger

and it DOES make a difference in close races even if many of his supporters are older whites.

[Demsrule86]

12. I was out canvassing yesterday

had done mostly phone work as I was ill early in the campaign (only time in my life) and I was very encouraged at how well I was received...no one complained about too many people coming out...everyone said they would vote or had voted...thanking me for my efforts blowing their horns and waving as I walked the neighborhood. Someone has been calling or coming out to these voters starting in July... they know us by name. And most of us worked both 08 and 12. We have fresh faces this year running the GOTV effort because Mark who did it both times before has been promoted and works for the DNC... I have to say 2012 was way tougher. I am in Trumbull County in Ohio...there are no Trump people coming out. I believe GOTV is why we elected Pres. Obama last time and am really optimistic today that we may elect Hillary this year in the great state of Ohio.

[riversedge]

21. Thanks for update and good vibes. Glad you are feeling better. I canvass also when

my knees let me--they are getting sore. But will be out later today. My response is mixed on most days-but lots of good also.

[Demsrule86]

13. Also, we have young computer geniuses manning the computers.

They have cleaned up the rolls amazingly...they did a great job identifying our voters...and we have a relationship with these voters. We can call them up and say hey friend turn in your damn ballot.

[LisaL]

16. Concentrate on Cuyahoga.

This year Cuyahoga just doesn't seem to be nearly as enthusiastic.

[book_worm]

3. Per the article she is winning early voters in Ohio by 10 points.

[LisaL]

4. That seems low. Obama had a much bigger lead in early voters.

[book_worm]

7. Every comment you make seems negative, why?

[LisaL]

8. Those are just the known facts.

I can't really make them up.

[book_worm]

9. show us your known facts

where does it say +10 early voting in Ohio is not good. Get us a link. Othewise stop being so negative.

[LisaL]

14. Obama led by a much larger margin among early voters according to polls.

"According to the latest NBC poll, “In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent."

https://www.thenation.com/article/obamas-ohio-early-voting-advantage/

[writes3000]

29. "plan to do so" means they haven't early voted.

[LisaL]

30. They are talking about early voters.

Read the whole paragraph. Obama won early voters by a large margin. Romney won on election day. It averaged out to Obama winning by a small margin.

[Demsrule86]

15. You also posted that ballot requests are down in Cuyahoga

But I am told early voting the last couple days is very high...you have posted all negative stuff...I don't know why.

[LisaL]

18. Because it's true. You were told something wrong.

Both ballots requests and in person voting are way down.
Early in person voting, there were in 2008: 54,000. In 2012: 45,000
This year, they are expecting 38,000.
Absentee ballot requests are way down as well.

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2016/11/cuyahoga_county_early_voting_r.html

[uawchild]

19. Thank you for that information

I like to know what is actually happening as Election Day gets closer. There's nothing to be gained for us keeping our heads in the sand.

I have noticed that too often that the poster of any result not positive for we democrats is attacked personally, having both their motives and integrity impugned.

I am sorry that you are experiencing this, if it's any solace, this has happened to me repeatedly here too.

It doesn't matter how many positive for Hillary polls I post, or how many anti-trump articles I present, as soon as I post anything slightly downbeat the vocal detractors start with the snark and insults.

Honestly, this behavior casts DU is a very bad light, it's that bad.

In any case, thanks for this info.

Cheers.

[LisaL]

20. Well, exactly. A lot of people

seem to just want to bury their heads in the sand.

[Proud liberal 80]

6. What is the 4 way number?

[book_worm]

10. The final dispatch poll in 2012 had Obama up by 2

he won by 3--so yes, GOTV.

[riversedge]

22. According to this--The Dispatch poll is suspose to be gold standand for Ohio. I really

do not know for sure. But hoping.

((Harry Enten))) Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten

Columbus Dispatch: Clinton 48, Trump 47 in Ohio http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# … Would explain why Clinton was campaigning in Ohio.

6:21 AM - 6 Nov 2016
0 replies 205 retweets 354 likes


Reply to @ForecasterEnten


Ali Momen ‏@alimomen 34m34 minutes ago

@forecasterenten Is this a really reputable poll?
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

Sally Knowles ‏@Sallyknowles21 29m29 minutes ago

@alimomen @ForecasterEnten the gold standard for Ohio.



Ali Momen ‏@alimomen 27m27 minutes ago

@sallyknowles21 @forecasterenten Wow…my gut tells me that late deciders will choose Clinton once in that booth.


Josh ‏@JDH9892 24m24 minutes ago

@fackinpeter @ForecasterEnten HRC does her stops according to Polls, Trump doesn't. HRC wouldn't waste time in a state she has no chance in
0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes

Joshua Hicks ‏@joshuarhicks 35m35 minutes ago

@ForecasterEnten the big counties are coming back for her... gonna be close; maybe even closer than Florida.
0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes

View other replies
Arnaud ‏@Arnaud5566 31m31 minutes ago

@joshuarhicks @ForecasterEnten its very very good news if OH is a 1 point state. It means PA and MI are safe.
0 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
View other replies
Chris McAllister ‏@TexasYankee001 26m26 minutes ago

@Arnaud5566 @joshuarhicks @ForecasterEnten Of course. Which is why she and her surrogates are spending today and tomorrow in....

PA and MI
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
View other replies
Josh ‏@JDH9892 20m20 minutes ago

@TexasYankee001 She is visiting Ohio today. Cleveland to be precise. Same place this poll said she was behind. Funny that.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
Shawn Phetteplace ‏@ShawnFetta 19m19 minutes ago

@JDH9892 @TexasYankee001 with Lebron James no less.
0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes

[triron]

32. Looked at cross tabs.

Looks like they over polled Rs and under polled blacks and other minorities.
Surprisingly said HRC was only up 11 in early vote. National poll had her up 30 in ohio in early vote.

[sunonmars]

11. I still remember the primary polls in Ohio for Clinton..all tied, she won by 13!

[riversedge]

23. .....The volatility of this year’s election is reflected in the poll data. Clinton is up by only 1

This is interesting.


.....The volatility of this year’s election is reflected in the poll data. Clinton is up by only 1 percentage point in predominently Democratic northeastern Ohio, while she and Trump are tied in the usual GOP stronghold of southwestern Ohio.

[uawchild]

24. Interesting point, it might be that a re-alignment is in progress.

It is crazy this year. Some feel this is because the two political parties are starting to re-align with different interest groups shifting to the other side.

Let me see if I can find an article on this... Ah, this one is good:

"This Is What the Future of American Politics Looks Like

This year, we’re seeing the end of a partisan realignment, and the beginning of a policy one — and U.S. politics is about to change big-time."

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-realignment-partisan-political-party-policy-democrats-republicans-politics-213909

[riversedge]

25. UPDATED: LeBron James joining Hillary Clinton to campaign Sunday in Cleveland...

UPDATED: LeBron James joining Hillary Clinton to campaign Sunday in Cleveland

http://www.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2016/11/11-2-16-clinton-to-visit-cleveland-on-sunday.html

By: Randy Ludlow

The Columbus Dispatch - November 04, 2016 09:38 PM


With African American turnout lagging, ...................
.............................
..............................Doors open at 1:30 p.m. for the 4:30 event.

Clinton also appeared Friday evening in Cleveland with hip hop artist Jay-Z at Cleveland State University.

Democrats count on building a healthy surplus of votes in the Cleveland area to offset Republican strengths elsewhere in Ohio.

But Republicans point to the decline in early voting in Cuyahoga County as evidence of an "enthusiasm gap" between Donald Trump and Clinton.

[NewsCenter28]

26. Now we know why Sec Clinton is campaigning in Ohio!-n/t

[Wounded Bear]

28. I'm counting on a "hidden" surge for Clinton...

I suspect she is doing substantially better than +1, by at least 3 points.

[vadermike]

31. Dispatch

Poll is gold standard for OH no? Great news for us