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2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,001 posts) Sun Nov 6, 2016, 01:05 PM Nov 2016

PEC HRC win at >99% bayesian and 99% random drift

80% senate control prob.

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***PEC HRC win at >99% bayesian and 99% random drift*** (Original Post) triron Nov 2016 OP

In fairness, PEC's "meta-margin" has been steadily dropping… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #1

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

1. In fairness, PEC's "meta-margin" has been steadily dropping…

Reply to triron (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 01:19 PM

Nov 2016

It was 3.1% a few days ago, now down to 2.5%. So, Wang has been seeing the polls move toward Trump -- just not fast enough for the dwindling amount of time left.

Just like Drew Linzer at dKos, whose win percentage for HRC has dropped from 96% to 87% over the past week. If the trend continued for the next couple of weeks, DJT might have a chance -- but he doesn't have those two weeks. Time's about to run out.

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