Any catch Nate Silver spin, spin spinning on ABC?

[SDANation]

Bad mouthing PEC model design and discounting the early vote? Totally trying to cover his ass. But he admitted and I agree, his model is based off of state polling only and every poll gets thrown in. So then his model would be inaccurate if he didn't include early voting data correct?

[Jarqui]

1. I don't take his stuff as "spin"

His "model" may need some adjustment but I think he's a pretty honest guy

[Blue Idaho]

2. Isn't that also true of Sam Wang's model?

Doesn't he use only state polls as well?

[GeorgeOrtega]

3. Are Republicans being polled lying to avoid being outed for rejecting Trump?

I wonder if anyone has explored the potential skewing effect of Republican voters, especially in Red states, telling pollsters that they are voting for Trump when they're actually not because they are afraid of sham GOTV phone banking calls whose real intent is to expose defectors to their close-minded and potentially vindictive, (i.e., employers) neighbors?

[radius777]

8. both Sam Wang(PEC) and Nate Cohn(NYT)'s models are stable

compared to Silver's, who is a good guy (and not a GOP shill as some suggest) with integrity, but whose model is clearly designed (imo) to get clicks and create conversation as well.

To be fair, Silver has explained why he thinks this volatility in his model is justified, as the polls have swung more sharply with the news (H's fainting episode, Access Hollywood tapes, Comey-gate, etc) which has covered the election like a reality show (thus scaring voters), and historically there are many more undecideds than usual.

Both Wang and Cohn and most gurus are predicting a comfortable (but maybe not landslide - thanks to Benedict Comey) win, Matthew Dowd said today he thinks the popular vote margin is going to be bigger than Obama's 4% in 2012, that all of the data shows this.

[Blue Idaho]

10. If the margin is 6 - 8%

The Electoral College victory will be monumental.

[DLCWIdem]

19. Another question about his model

In 4 way polling is he including the number of Stein and Johnson voters in his instability, assuming they are undecideds?

[Democat]

13. We have no idea who is paying Nate Silver

If it turns out he's very wrong, then at least he may have a career with Fox News or Trump TV.

[redstateblues]

16. He is running a website now- he depends on clicks

I think he becomes more like cable news- banking on a horse race- he needs more than Dems looking at his website. He has a big operation to fund- trying to give hope to both sides- if you read his analysis he always hedges whatever conclusion he comes to.

[forjusticethunders]

15. a poem

My model is jank
I sold out for silver
What is my name?
Why, it's Nate Shillver!

[DLCWIdem]

17. I have a question about polling in general

When they poll a population and find out the person already voted do they discount, or are people who already voted included in the sample?