Bullshit Polls: Hispanic Turnout Down 20%, Trump Doing Better than Romney Among Latinos

[Doctor Jack]

Ive been reading about polling of hispanic voters today (as have many of us) and here is what recent polls have been showing (edit: by which I mean their assumptions make no sense based on what we are actually seeing).

A. Many pollsters are assuming hispanic turnout will be 8% of the electorate this year. It was 10% in 2012.

B. Many polls show clinton with about a 15 point lead among his hispanic voters. Obama won them by about 43 points in 2012.


So the polls showing clinton with a lead of 3 points or so assume that latino voters are less engaged this year than in 2012 and that Trump has made up significant ground among hispanic voters compared to Romney. Hmmmm.....


Edit: I'm not saying I agree with this assessment. I am trying to show how dramatically the pollsters that are showing a "horse race" are likely underestimating Clinton. All of those polls that the MSM is up their own asses about showing that "anything can happen" are full of faulty assumptions.

Edit 2: Changed the title. Hopefully no more confusion

[leftofcool]

1. BS!

[Squinch]

2. Links for any of that? Because it's not what I'm reading.

[Doctor Jack]

16. I'm not saying that is what will happening that is what pollsters are assuming

which is clearly a bullshit read of the electorate

Links for you

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804

https://twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/794184048436334592

[Squinch]

20. So you posted something ridiculous as fact, and now you are saying it is bullshit when you

are asked to back it up.

[redstateblues]

26. Bad post. Confusing

[tblue37]

27. That is not what the OP seems to be saying. He seems to be saying that the polls are

drastically underestimating HRC's support because they are drastically underestimating both the percentage of her support among the Latinx voters and the number of Latinx voters who will actually vote this time.

[Doctor Jack]

32. Exactly

Poorly written initially (i typed it on my phone which never is a good idea) but not meant to be malicious or a concern troll.

[Hortensis]

37. Imo, the confusing header outweighs later disclaimers.

As does the further false information. Maybe posters should not lead out with false and misleading information and then require readers to untwist to understand.

As we can see, this is easily misunderstood, or easily understood. I'm not exactly sure.

[Doctor Jack]

39. Duly noted

[upaloopa]

3. Hispanics and women will hand Trump his ass.

[Xipe Totec]

4. Goddam, Mr Trump, Look at all them fucking Mexicans! nt

[LAS14]

6. Link????

[JHan]

7. Tuesday will tell.

Cake already baked.

[redstateblues]

8. Only a 15 point lead among Hispanics? Not buying that.

[senseandsensibility]

9. Unless you post links,

I will assume this is a creative writing assignment of some type. Perhaps particularly bad satire?

[nolabels]

38. Some, no fault of their own, are not as academically endowed as others

I damn sure am not any even a above par wordsmith but some time i called upon to render some for coworkers when they caught in a pinch. Creative writing was a mandatory in middle school but many of us who thought it was really not that important of a subject, and were we ever so wrong

[bdamomma]

10. link please

[LostinRed]

11. Source?

I've been reading it is way up http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804

Here is an example

[yardwork]

12. Got any evidence for that? Everything I've seen says the opposite.

[sharp_stick]

13. I wonder where

these many polsters are... Something like this would be top of the page news around the country so I'm inclined to believe that the whole thing is a steaming pile of shit.

[vdogg]

15. CNN would've covered this for 5 days if true.

[vdogg]

14. Are you saying you agree with this assumption, or are you doubting it?

[Doctor Jack]

18. I'm saying its bullshit and that is why the polls are underestimating clinton

[beachbum bob]

17. Totally inaccurate....unless you have reliable links..

Hispanics in record numbers voting for Hillary with an expectation of 30-40% increase over 2012...

[Doctor Jack]

22. Again, I think its a bullshit assumption.

This is what the pollsters are assuming about demographics which is clearly not going to happen, at all.

[LostinRed]

21. This is an example of a really bad post

Even what you're quoting was just suggesting abc poll was bad because is under representation of Latinos

[Rex]

23. I've been reading about unprecedented numbers of Hispanics turning out to vote for HRC.

All over the country.

[Doctor Jack]

25. Indeed, which is why the polls showing a "horse race" are based on faulty logic

That is the point i am trying to make. Not that I believe that hispanics love trump and they don't care about the election.

[Rex]

28. Plenty of made up polls. The GOP fails to understand the difference between scientific polls and

opinion polls. They are a bunch of delusional imbeciles.

[Dem2]

29. I don't get some of your posts

You think too much.

(so do I)

[Doctor Jack]

30. I created this thread on my phone

Which I think caused something to get lost in translation

[Dem2]

34. Lol, I was mowing up leaves and thought up one about how they aren't talking much about Bill Clinton

any longer, since, well, you know, Trump is a molestor/pedophile. I pulled over, stopped the blade, used google voice to text to create the post, then put the phone back in my pocket.



No, I don't have a life.

[RAFisher]

33. Polls don't assume turnout. It's calculated.

[pnwmom]

36. Yes, they do. They make assumptions when they do their calculations. n/t

[ananda]

35. And yet, in the REAL world, Latinos are turning out in large numbers!

[triron]

40. Contradicts Uniivision latino polls